India''s monsoon rainfall seen average in 2013 -minister

NEW DELHI, April 26. - India expects total monsoonrainfall to be average in 2013, a minister said on Friday,strengthening prospects for one of the world''s biggest grainsproducers to avoid widespread drought for a fourth straightyear. India''s first official forecast confirms a call by globalexperts last week, and points to bumper grain supplies thatwould swell huge current stockpiles and hold down world foodprices. "Most likely this year''s monsoon is expected to be withinthe normal range," Earth Sciences Minister S. Jaipal Reddy tolda news conference in the Indian capital. Monsoon rains are vital for the 55 percent of the country''sfarmland that lacks irrigation facilities, and can make thedifference between India being an exporter or importer ofstaples such as rice and sugar. Rainfall is expected to be 98 percent of the long-termaverage during the June to September season, Reddy said. Rainsbetween 96 percent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 89 cmfor the entire season are considered normal, or average. The last time there was a drought with rainfall below thisrange was in 2009 and prior to that, in 2004. Agriculture accounts for 15 percent of gross domesticproduct in Asia''s third-largest economy, where more than 800million people live in rural areas. Ample harvests also helpkeep a lid on inflation, now running near 9 percent. Rain last year fell only about 7 percent below average inthe season, but drought ravaged an area in India''s southern andwestern states that is roughly the size of southern Europe, andwhich is still suffering. India will issue its final monsoon forecast in June, afterthe southwest monsoon has typically covered half the country.