CHANA, Mentha oil, Jeera & Pepper market report.

chana....... Markets failed to pick up for Chana as demand remained low amidst moderate arrivals in the mandis. Overall Fundamen-tals remained slight weak with weather forecasters predict-ing a normal Monsoon this year and demand still not picking up significantly. Moderate arrivals continued to keep senti-ments weak for the commodity  Higher production prospects in Chana could however limit any significant uptrend for the commodity. Firmness in Tur and Urad could also support Chana rates to some extent.  Pulses exports banned till March 31, 2014 as per DGFT noti-fication.  As per 2nd Advanced Government Estimates, Pulses produc-tion is likely to rise to 17.58 million tonnes in 2012-13 —up from 17.09 million tonnes in 2011-12. Production of all ma-jor Pulses—Chana, Tur, Urad and Moong—are expected to rise this year. Pulses sown area has reportedly risen to 148.13 lakh ha in 2012-13 vs 147.42 lakh ha in 2011-12. Sown area for Chana has reportedly increased to 94.78 lakh ha vs 89.92 lakh ha in corresponding periods  Good weather conditions in growing areas in MP, Maharashtra and Rajasthan have been responsible for the improved productivity and production prospects  Regular imports are also preventing major uptrend for Chana rates. Raising of MSP for Chana last year has resulted in higher acreage for the Rabi crop this year in states of MP and Maharashtra. Conducive weather in growing states have been creating a Bearish impact on the commodity rates for last few months. MENTHA OIL After the recovery seen for Mentha Oil the earlier day, the higher levels were not sustainable as absence of demand at the higher levels and prospects of better production kept pressurizing the market sentiments. Traders expect high vol-atility in the short term. But new crop arrivals next month onwards could prevent rates from shooting up a lot. High stocks from last year too could keep pressure on the prices  Sentiments are likely to remain under pressure due to higher production prospects, high stock levels and better sowing area this year  Demand from Corporate sector though could support the prices to some extent but that has fallen somewhat as some more corrections are awaited for the commodity rates  As per latest reports, the total area under cultivation is ex-pected to rise by 20% at 2.1 lakh ha vs 1.75 lakh ha last year. Sowing is nearly complete. Production is estimated higher at 60-65,000 tonnes higher than ~53,000 tonnes pro-duced last year. It may be noted that last year’s figure too was on the higher side—resulting in higher stock levels this year  All these factors could result in prices getting pressurized in the near term  Traders expect that higher stocks amidst overall low demand and good sowing may not allow market to witness much upside movement in medium term. Jeera Higher arrivals and lack of strong demand in the mandis kept trend further weak for Jeera. Traders however feel rates have fallen a lot and are expecting some pick up in demand in the coming days. Higher arrivals of the new crop however prevented any significant rise in price for the commodity.  The coming day trend would depend on the export queries which are expected to rise—lending further strength to the rising rates for the commodity  Better crop expectations this year could temper the rising rates to some extent though. But traders anticipate present rates are on the lower side and there are expectations of exports too picking up in coming weeks. Stockists too were reportedly not willing to sell at these levels.  Higher Production prospects too are likely to keep pres-sure on market sentiments as good sowing reports from Gujarat and Rajasthan keep production prospects good  Medium to long term trend looks Bullish as exports are expected to pick up in coming months amidst lower production reports in Turkey and Syria. Indian production expected at 28-30 lakh bags translating to more than 1.5 lakh tons. PEPPER No strong movement was noted for Pepper as low trading activities in the mandis kept market sentiments weak. Lack of strong trading activities in the mandis gave no clear indication to the market trend. Short term senti-ments likely to remain volatile as low volumes noted in the Futures market also  From medium term point of view, it is anticipated by the traders that present rates being very low and there is pos-sibility of rise in domestic demand in near future. But short term no clear directions are noted  Reports of increased production prospects from Interna-tional Pepper Community pegging the global expected output for Pepper at 3.36 lakh tons kept sentiments weak for Indian as well as International markets. Indian output expected at 55000 tons in 2013 vs 43000 tons in 2012. Exports estimates at 25000 tons in 2013 vs 17500 tons in 2012  On the International front, better crop expectations from Indonesia and Sri Lanka and better crop and stock levels in Vietnam have also prevented the rates from rising a lot in the short term  Latest reports keep production estimates in Vietnam at 1.35-1.40 lakh tons vs 1.0-1.10 lakh tons of the earlier estimates. But higher export estimates as per Vietnam Pepper Association could perk up prices in medium to long term (exports expected at 120,000 tons—up more than 20% in value)  With Indian production expected lower due to adverse weather, lower acreage and a fall in productivity, any rise in exports could support the prices from a medium to long term point of view. (R S Rana)