mcx futures market.....gold........copper....crude.....soyabean

Gold: Gold prices opened the week under positive tone and traded higher in early few sessions as Fed delayed to scale back monetary stimulus. The U.S. dollar index fell when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said lower inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could hamper the economic expansion and pledged to keep buying $85 billion bonds every month. Additionally, Indian rupee sharply weakened against the U.S. dollar which also provided support to gold prices at domestic bourses. However, gold prices fell sharply during later part of the last week as U.S. initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level in five years and the manufacturing PMI rose at the fastest pace in two years. The U.S. second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) advance report showed better than expected numbers and a private employment report showed an increase in U.S. employment. ¬¬¬¬¬Price Movement in the Last week: MCX October gold prices opened the week at Rs 27,473/10 grams, traded higher after touching a high of Rs 28,876/10 grams. Later, prices came under pressure at higher levels and currently trading around Rs 27,850/10 grams (August 02, Friday at 6.00 PM) with a gain of Rs 525/10 grams. Outlook for this week: MCX October gold prices are expected to trade slightly lower due to lower investment demand as SPDR gold trust, World's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined to 929.76 tonnes as on July 24, 2013, down 0.94% as compared to 921.05 tonnes on August 01, 2013. MCX October gold shall find supports at 26,870/26,355 levels and resistances at 28,300/28,725 levels. International Spot gold has supports at 1260/1235 and resistances at 1322/1360 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell MCX October Gold between 28,250-28,300, SL 28,730 and Target- 26,870/26,400. Copper: MCX August Copper futures traded higher in the last week as the euro-zone economic sentiment rose for the third consecutive month, consumer confidence improved for the eighth month and services sector posted sharpest in gain in July; indicating euro-area is emerging from double dip recession. The euro-zone manufacturing Purchase Manager’s Index (PMI) recorded above 50.0 levels, a parameter for expansion, for the first time since July 2011. U.S. Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI expanded fastest pace in two years. China’s manufacturing PMI by State Council Information Office showed a reading 50.3 in July. Further, sharp fall in Indian rupee against U.S. dollar also provided support to the prices at domestic bourses. Price movement in the last week: MCX August Copper prices opened the week at Rs 408.40/kg, surged sharply and touched a high of Rs 431.40/Kg and currently trading at Rs 429.50/kg (August 02, Friday at 6.00 PM) with a huge gain of Rs 21.10/kg, up by 5.15% as compared with previous week’s close. Outlook for this week: MCX August Copper is expected to trade higher on account of positive manufacturing data from euro zone and China, world’s largest importer and consumer. MCX August Copper shall find a supports at 418/412 levels and resistances at 437/448 levels. Recommendation for this week: Buy MCX August Copper between 418-422, SL 410, Target- 437/447. Crude: MCX August crude oil futures surged sharply in the last week on the back of U.S. the world’s largest oil consuming country’s economic growth outperformed forecast in the second quarter. Oil market ignored an unexpected build in crude inventories by the Energy Information Administration but rallied with the gains in U.S. industrial index, Dow Jones. The U.S. crude oil inventories increased 0.4 million barrels to reach 364.6 million barrels and oil imports averaged about 8.2 million barrels per day last week, up by 136 thousand barrels per day in the last week. Federal Reserve pledge to maintain Quantitative Easing (QE3) helped and a rebound in global manufacturing sector also indicating growth perspective for oil consumption. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that China’s crude oil reserves rose by the most in 2012, making it the 11th largest holder of oil globally. Further, claims for jobless benefits in U.S. unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level in more than five years. Applications for unemployment insurance payments declined by 19,000 to 326,000 in the week ended July 27. Price movement in the last week: MCX August crude oil prices opened the week at Rs 6202/bbl, traded higher and found strong resistance of Rs 6637/bbl. Currently trading at Rs 6548/bbl (August 02, Friday at 6.00 PM) with a huge gain of Rs 350/bbl, i.e. up by 6%. Outlook for this week: MCX August crude oil is expected to trade higher on the back of improved U.S. economy and positive manufacturing data from euro area is also supportive for crude oil prices. Euro-area manufacturing expanded at a faster pace than initially estimated in July as amid increasing signs the economy is pulling out of a record-long recession. A manufacturing index based on a survey of purchasing managers in the industry increased to 50.3 last month, topping the 50 mark for the first time since July 2011, reported Markit Economics MCX August crude oil shall find a support at 6400/6230 levels and resistance 6750/6900 levels. Recommendation for this week: Buy MCX August Crude between 6230-6250, SL 6220, target- 6750/6900 Soybean: NCDEX soybean October contract traded slightly higher in the last week on account of short covering after sharp fall in the previous week. There is news about the crop damage due to continuous rains in some parts of Maharashtra (Vidarbha region) and in some parts of Madhya Pradesh as water logging in lower areas also added bullish market sentiments. As per Ministry of Agriculture (GOI), Kharif oilseeds sowing area covered to 173.21 lakh hectares (lh) till August 01, 2013 against 144.87 lakh ha last year during the same period. Kharif oilseed includes soybean (118.76 lh), groundnut (37.24 lh), Sesamum (10.95 lh), Sunflower (1.84 lh), Niger Seed (0.95 lh) and Castor Seed (3.47 lh). Area covered under soybean throughout India was 118.76 lakh ha compared to 103.06 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under kharif oilseeds in Madhya Pradesh was 67.13 lakh ha compared to 61.74 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean in Madhya Pradesh was 62.09 lakh ha till August 01, 2013 compared to 57.76 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year, due to early receive and distribution of rainfall in the state. Area covered under oilseeds in Maharashtra was 40.60 lakh ha till August 01, 2013 compared to 32.69 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean was 38.01 lakh ha compared to 30.41 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under oilseeds in Rajasthan was 18.37 lakh ha till August 01, 2013 compared to 15.16 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean in Rajasthan was 10.58lakh ha compared to 9.04 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under oilseeds in Gujarat was 19.82 lakh ha till August 01, 2013 compared to 11.06 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean in Gujarat was 0.93 lakh ha compared to 0.53 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under oilseeds in Karnataka was 8.31 lakh ha till August 01, 2013 compared to 5.22 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean in Karnataka was 2.44 lakh ha compared to 1.78 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. As per USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report, net weekly export sales for soybean came at 78,500 tonnes for the current marketing year but new crop sales came in at an explosive 1,030,900 million tonnes taking the report total to 1,109,400. As of July 25th, cumulative sales stand at 38% of the USDA forecast for 2013/2014 versus a 5 year average of 26%. Sales of 425,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Old crop sales were down 39% from the previous week, but up 9% from the 4-week average. The new crop sales consisted primarily of China at 558,000 tonnes. Net meal sales came in at 11,100 tonnes for the current marketing year and 320,300 tonnes for the next marketing year for a total of 331,400 tonnes. Net weekly export sales for soybean oil sales came at 11,300 tonnes for the current marketing year and 200 for the next marketing year for a total of 11,500 tonnes. Brazil’s sowing acreage of oilseeds is expected to rise 29.5 million hectares or 72.9 million acre in next 2013-14 season from 27.7 million hectares in current season. Most farmers in Brazil start planting soybeans between September to October and start harvesting in January. Outlook for this week: NCDEX October soybean oil is expected to trade slightly higher as there is news about the crop damage in some parts of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh due to continuous rains and water logging in lower areas. However, for the long term, soybean prices are expected to trade lower on the back of higher sowing acreage for this season as compared to last year. NCDEX October soybean shall find a support at 2920/2838 levels and resistance 3100/3165 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell NCDEX October soybean between 3080-3100, SL 3170, target- 2920/2840.