mcx & ncdex.....gold.....copper......Oil Seed Complex (Soybean, Soybean Oil and palm Oil)......

Bullion MCX Gold prices surged sharply and breached 6 months high in the last week as the Government of India increased import duty on gold and silver to control current account deficit. Import duty on gold increased from 8% to 10% and excise duty on refined gold bar increased from 7% to 9%. Import duty on silver increased from percent from 6% to 10% and excise duty on manufactured silver rose from 4% to 8%. Comex gold surged sharply in the last week as a retreat in equities increased the appeal of bullion as an alternative investment amid signs of rising physical demand. The China Gold Association said on Aug. 12 that purchases climbed 54 percent to 706.4 metric tons in the first half from a year earlier. Demand surged 87 percent for bars and 44 percent for jewelry demand. India’s rupee weakened again to all-time low against the dollar as outflows increased from Indian stock market, which gave a rally for bullion in domestic bourses. ¬¬¬¬¬Price Movement in the Last week: MCX October gold prices opened the week at Rs 28,029/10 grams, traded higher and touched a high of Rs 30,470/10 grams and currently trading around Rs 30,309/10 grams (August 16, Friday at 6.00 PM) with a huge gain of Rs 2403/10 grams. Outlook for this week: MCX October gold prices are expected to trade higher due to improved demand for jewelry and increased import duty on gold. Weakness in Indian rupee against the US dollar is also supportive for prices. MCX October gold shall find supports at 29,130/29,000 levels and resistances at 30,835/31,200 levels. International Spot gold has supports at 1335/1320 and resistances at 1395/1420 levels. Recommendation for this week: Buy MCX October Gold between 29,130-29,150, SL below 29,000 and Target- 30,835/31,190. Copper: Copper futures traded higher for the third consecutive week after an unexpected drop in the U.S. jobless claims and a sign of expansion in U.S. manufacturing indicated the world’s biggest economy continues to improve. Claims for jobless benefits dropped last week to the lowest level in almost six years, while, manufacturing in the New York region expanded in August for a third month. Manufacturing orders and machine orders in Japan increased in the second quarter, indicating world’s third largest economy revealed signs of a recovery. Investor confidence in the third largest metals consuming county, Germany, increased more than the estimation in August and euro area industrial output rose 0.7 in June from 0.2 in May. Japan’s top listed companies doubled earnings last quarter from a year earlier, exceeding high forecasts. Market traded under positive tone though Japan’s second quarter GDP reported less than expectation. These economic indicators supported for a rally in metals counter in the last week. Additionally, weakness in India’s rupee also provided support to the prices at domestic bourses. Price movement in the last week: MCX August Copper prices opened the week at Rs 441.50/kg, surged sharply and touched a high of Rs 464/Kg and currently trading at Rs 460.35/kg (August 16, Friday at 6.10 PM) with a huge gain of Rs 18.15/kg, up by 2.22% as compared with previous week’s close. Outlook for this week: MCX August Copper is expected to trade higher on account of positive global manufacturing and industrial data. Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded in August for the third straight month, the latest sign of an improving outlook for the industry after a slowdown earlier this year. MCX August Copper shall find a supports at 450/441 levels and resistances at 472/480 levels. Recommendation for this week: Buy MCX August Copper between 450-452, SL below 440, Target- 472/478. Crude: Crude oil futures traded higher in the last week as an escalating conflict in Egypt fanned concern that oil shipments through the country may be disrupted. U.S. jobless benefit claims unexpectedly fell last week, bolstering speculation the country may taper economic stimulus. There are also concerns of supply threat as Egypt controls the Suez Canal and the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline, through which a combined 4.51 million barrels a day of crude and refined products were shipped between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean in 2012, according to the Energy Information Administration. A weather system heading for the Gulf of Mexico has a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm. The Gulf is home to about 6 percent of U.S. natural gas output, 23 percent of oil production and more than 45 percent of refining capacity, according to the U.S. Energy Department. As per the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels, which is more than expectation and stood at 360.5 million barrels in the previous week. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels and distillate fuel inventories are increased by 2.0 million barrels in the previous week. Price movement in the last week: MCX August crude oil prices opened the week at Rs 6430/bbl, initially traded higher and touched a high of Rs 6677/bbl and currently trading at Rs 6658/bbl (August 16, Friday at 6.20 PM) with a loss of Rs 243/bbl, i.e. up by 3.80%. Outlook for this week: Crude oil is expected to trade higher on the back supply owing to unrest in Egypt and oil output concerns in Libiya which may lead to rise in prices. Further, improvement in U.S. economy and Euro-zone’s economic revival is also positive for base metal prices.. MCX September crude oil shall find a support at 6600/6520 levels and resistance 6780/6870 levels. Recommendation for this week: Buy MCX September Crude between 6600-6620, SL 6510, target- 6780/6870 . Oil Seed Complex (Soybean, Soybean Oil and palm Oil): NCDEX September refined soybean oil traded higher in the last week on account of firm overseas market and improved domestic demand ahead of festivals. Sharp fall in Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar also added bullish market sentiments as edible oils imports would be more expensive and India imports more than 50% of its requirements. According to the Solvent Extractors Association of India, the import of edible oils in the month of July 2013 is reported at 874,703 tons compared to 848,229 tons in July 2012 i.e. up about 3%. The overall import of edible oils during November 2012 to July 2013 is reported at 7,816,623 tons compared to 7,104,667 i.e. up by 10%. The import of RBD Palmolein in the month of July 2013 is reported at 213,853 tons compared to 112,611 tons in July 2012 i.e. up by 90%. The overall import of RBD Palmolein during November 2012 to July 2013 is reported at 1,758,107 tons compared to 1,325,163 i.e. up about 33%. While, the import of Crude Palm Oil in the month of July 2013 is reported at 354,401 tons compared to 486,517 tons in July 2012 i.e. down by 27%. The overall import of crude palm oil during November 2012 to July 2013 is reported at 4,444,379 tons compared to 3,882,383 i.e. up about 15%. The import of soybean oil (degummed) in the month of July 2013 is reported at 234,650 tons compared to 156,720 tons in July 2012 i.e. up by 50%. The overall import of soybean oil (degummed) during November 2012 to July 2013 is reported at 725,618 tons compared to 817,212 i.e. down about 11%. Import of RBD Palmolein reported to 213,853 tons in July 2013 compared to 296,230 tons in June 2013 due to reduction in duty difference between crude and refined palmolein and inverted duty structure by palm oil exporting countries. This has encouraged larger export of RBD Palmolein to India. Import of RBD Palmolein during Apr.’13 to July’13 has surged and reported at 1,137,409 tons compared to 5 03,203 tons during the same period of last year leading to crisis in domestic refining sector. In last one year, RBD Palmolein has fallen to $810/tons in July 2013 from $1036/tons in July 2012, down by 22%, CPO fallen to $806/tons in July 2013 from $1003/tons in July 2012, down by 20%, Crude Soybean Oil fallen to $925/tons in July 2013 from $1260/tons in July 2012, down by 24%, and Crude Sunflower Oil fallen to $1192/tons in July 2013 from $1226/tons in July 2012, down by 3%. Rupee has suddenly fallen in last few days and touched Rs.61.98 a dollar (August 16th, 2013), putting some pressure on import of vegetable oils. As per USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report, net weekly export sales for soybean oil came in at 1,800 tons for the current marketing year and 6,000 for the next marketing year. Cumulative sales stand at 91% of the USDA forecast vs a 5 year average of 90%. Sales of 11,000 tons are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Soybean oil stocks for July sank to 2.049 million pounds, down from 2.297 in June and down from 2.345 in July of last year. As per USDA’s monthly supply & demand reports, India’s oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 37.68 million tons, up 0.34 million tons from last month. India’s soybean production for 2013-14 is projected at 12.3 million tons, up 0.3 million tons from 12 million tons in the last month. Cotton Seed, Peanut and RM Seed’s production estimates are 11.90 million tons, 5 million tons and 7 million tons respectively; it is unchanged compared with last month’s estimates. U.S. oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 96.2 million tons, down 4.7 million from last month mainly due to a lower soybean production forecast. Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 493.1 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from last month. Global Soybean production for 2013-14 is projected at 281.72 million tons, down 4.18 million tons from 285.9 million tons in the last month. Global Soybean ending stocks for 2013-14 is projected at 72.23 million tons, down 4.18 million tons from 74.12 million tons in the last month. U.S. Soybean production for 2013-14 is projected at 88.6 million tons, down 4.48 million tons in last month. Brazil, Argentina and China’s soybean production estimates is unchanged compared with last month. As per SGS (a cargo surveyor), exports from Malaysia, the largest producer after Indonesia, rose 19 percent in the first 15 days of August from 536,391 tons during the same period in July. Consumption of edible oils usually rises during the festival season. India is the largest importer of palm oil in the world. India imports palm from Indonesia and Malaysia. Malaysia left the tax on crude palm oil exports unchanged at 4.5% for a seven month in September to boost shipments and reduce inventories. While Indonesia kept its export tax on crude palm oil at 10.50% this month. Outlook for this week: Refined soy oil and palm is expected to trade slightly higher on account of firm overseas market as improved demand of edible oils USDA’s bullish weekly export sales for soybean oil. Depreciation of Indian rupee against the dollar is also supportive for prices. NCDEX September Refined soybean oil shall find a support at 655/651 levels and resistance 673/680 levels. MCX September crude palm oil shall find a support at 502/496 levels and resistance 518/527 levels. Recommendation for this week: Buy NCDEX September Refined Soybean Oil between 655-658, SL 650, target- 673/679.