mcx future gold......copper.....crude....soyabeen.......

Gold: Gold prices opened the week under negative tone and slid to a three-week low as Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said that the central bank is closer to slowing the pace of monetary stimulus and Fed Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans also said Tuesday that there has been “good improvement” in the labor market and indicated a tapering of the bond-buying program in September is possible. Further, Labor Department showed in its’ June report, that Job openings in the U.S. rose to the highest level in five years also added bearish market sentiments. Additionally, U.S. services sector expanded more than the survey estimate, which also provided negativity for bullion. However, gold prices bounced back slightly later as U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to increase, which would likely to bring upside move in bullion. India’s rupee weakened again to near all-time low against the dollar as outflows increased from Indian stock market, which gave a pullback for bullion in domestic bourses. ¬¬¬¬¬Price Movement in the Last week: MCX October gold prices opened the week at Rs 28,090/10 grams, initially traded lower and found good support at Rs 27,342/10 grams. Later, prices bounced back from low and currently trading around Rs 27,700/10 grams (August 08, Thursday at 11.20 PM) with a loss of Rs 347/10 grams. Outlook for this week: MCX October gold prices are expected to trade slightly lower due to lower investment demand as SPDR gold trust, World's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined to 910.53 tonnes as on August 07, 2013, the lowest since February 2009. MCX October gold shall find supports at 27,200/26,915 levels and resistances at 28,175/28,680 levels. International Spot gold has supports at 1265/1235 and resistances at 1322/1340 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell MCX October Gold between 28,150-28,175, SL 28,685 and Target- 27,200/26,915. Copper: MCX August Copper futures traded higher in the second consecutive week as Services sector of U.S. and U.K. are expanded more than expectation and euro-zone manufacturing numbers were better than expectation. China’s copper imports rose for the third straight month in July, growing 8.1 percent to a 14-month high. Chinese total exports rose 5.1 percent from a year earlier and imports advanced 10.9 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $17.8 billion. Further, German factory orders increased most in the eight months and industrial production rose 2.4 percent while U.K. industrial production added signs of rebounding global economy. Global manufacturing and industrial sector are showing positive signs of demand for base metals. Additionally, weakness in India’s rupee also provided support to the prices at domestic bourses. Price movement in the last week: MCX August Copper prices opened the week at Rs 427.80/kg, surged sharply and touched a high of Rs 440.45/Kg and currently trading at Rs 437.60/kg (August 08, Thursday at 11.40 PM) with a huge gain of Rs 9.40/kg, up by 2.22% as compared with previous week’s close. Outlook for this week: MCX August Copper is expected to trade higher on account of positive global manufacturing and industrial data. MCX August Copper shall find a supports at 428/421 levels and resistances at 450/463 levels. Recommendation for this week: Buy MCX August Copper between 428-430, SL below 421, Target- 450/462. Crude: MCX August crude oil futures traded slightly lower in the last week on account of profit taking in the last week, following sharp rise in the previous week. Further, the U.S. economic data also provided negative tone on curbing demand concerns when payrolls in July recorded less than expectation and trade deficit in June sharply narrowed due to considerable fall in crude oil imports. An unexpected increase in gasoline and distillate inventories in the previous week added negative sentiments on oversupply when the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that inventories of gasoline rose 135,000 barrels to 223.6 million and distillate supplies gained 469,000 barrels to 126.5 million while crude oil inventories drawdown was less than expectation, reported a fall 1.32 million barrels to 363.3 million. As per EIA, U.S. crude oil production rose to highest level since December 1989. Price movement in the last week: MCX August crude oil prices opened the week at Rs 6532/bbl, initially traded slightly higher and found strong resistance of Rs 6623/bbl. Later prices fell from high and touched a low of Rs 6381/bbl and currently trading at Rs 6391/bbl (August 08, Thursday at 11.50 PM) with a loss of Rs 132/bbl, i.e. down by 2%. Outlook for this week: Crude oil is expected to trade slightly lower on the back oversupply and less demand in the world’s largest oil consuming country, the U.S. MCX August crude oil shall find a support at 6340/6165 levels and resistance 6637/6720 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell MCX August Crude between 6600-6630, SL 6725, target- 6340/6180. Soybean: NCDEX soybean October contract traded slightly higher owing to talk about the crop damage due to continuous rains (water logging in lower lying areas) in some parts of Maharashtra especially in Vidarbha region and in some parts of Madhya Pradesh. However, higher sowing acreage estimates of soybean for this season which will translate into higher production coupled with lower export demand of domestic soybean meals restricted from sharp rise in prices. According to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, the export of oil-meals in the month of July 2013 is reported at 177,011 tons compared to 282,703 tons in July 2012 i.e. down by 37%. The total export of oil-meals in the first 4 months of financial year (April-July 2013) is reported at 1,027,962 tons compared to 1,356,737 tons during the same period of last year i.e. down by 24%. While, soybean meal exports in the month of July 2013 is reported at 107,038 tons, down by 36% from 168,341 tons July 2012 and during April-July 2013, soybean meal exports is drastically reduced to 516,545 tons from 805,748 tons during the same period last year. Major Importer of Oil-meals from India: Oil-meal import by South Korea from India during April-July 2013 is reported at 325,768 tons compared to 354,143 tons last year consisting of 125,583 tons of rapeseed meal and 200,185 tons of castor meal. Iran imported of 363,744 tons compared to 451,915 tons, consisting 363,668 tons of soybean meal and small quantity of rapeseed meal. Thailand imported of 86,233 tons compared to 89,528 tons, consisting 10,079 tons of soybean meal, and 76,154 tons of rapeseed meal. Vietnam imported of 39,110 tons compared to 144,611 tons last year consisting of 8,547 tons of rapeseed meal, 797 tons of castor meal, 766 tons of soybean meal and entire quantity of 29,000 tons of rice bran extraction. Indonesia imported 29,375 tons compared to 72,724 tons of last year consisting of 24,514 tons of rapeseed meal and 4,861 tons of soybean meal. Europe and others have imported 110,134 tons compared to 30,618 tons of last year. Overall exports of oil-meals to all regions have fallen. Average international prices of soybean meal at Indian ports were $571/tons in the month of July 2013 against $709/tons in the month of July 2012. Average price of Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar were 59.76 in the month of July 2013 against 55.42 in the month of July 2012. Progress of Sowing Acreage of Soybean Crop: As per Ministry of Agriculture (GOI), Kharif oilseeds sowing area covered to 181.25 lakh hectares (lh) till August 08, 2013, up 18% against 153.18 lakh ha last year during the same period. Kharif oilseed includes soybean (121.06 lh), groundnut (39.32 lh), Sesamum (12.86 lh), Sunflower (2 lh), Niger Seed (1.14 lh) and Castor Seed (4.88 lh). Area covered under soybean throughout India was 121.06 lakh ha, up 15% compared to 105.43 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean in Madhya Pradesh was 63.51 lakh ha till August 08, 2013 compared to 58.07 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year, due to early receive and distribution of rainfall in the state. Area covered under soybean in Maharashtra was 38.53 lakh ha compared to 31.17 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean in Rajasthan was 10.59 lakh ha compared to 9.87 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean in Gujarat was 0.93 lakh ha compared to 0.78 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean in Karnataka was 2.47 lakh ha compared to 1.97 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Outlook for this week: NCDEX October soybean is expected to trade slightly higher as there is news about the crop damage in some parts of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh due to continuous rains and water logging in lower areas. Additionally, weakness in Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar is also supportive for soybean prices as exporters will get more return of soy meal exports. However, higher sowing acreage for this year as compared to last year and lower export figures in the month of July 2013 may restrict from sharp rise in prices. NCDEX October soybean shall find a support at 2900/2838 levels and resistance 3050/3130 levels.