mcx futures..... bullion......copper....crude.....soyabean.....

Bullion: MCX October Gold futures surged sharply for the third consecutive week by making a historical high of Rs 35074/10 grams owing to sharp fall of India’s rupee. Indian rupee plunged to a fresh record low of 68.85 against the U.S. dollar in the spot market in the last week, after ‘Food Security Bill’ passed in the parliament. The food security bill entitles subsidized grain to two-thirds of the country’s 1.2 billion people, is estimated to cost about $19.5 billion in subsidies annually at a time when the country is running budget deficit. There is also a concern that nation’s current account deficit will widen as oil prices rose amid political tensions in the Middle East. India’s economy is stepping into its biggest crisis since 1991 as Non-Performing Assets (NPA) of banks are rising and inflation is accelerating while budget and current account deficits are adversely affecting the economy. Additionally, bullion in the overseas market also supported for rally as gold climbed to three month high on safe-haven appeal against the political risks emerging from Middle East tensions as Syria held accountable for using chemical weapons. U.S. pending home sales dropped the most in this year in July and mortgage applications in the country fell last week to the lowest level since February 2011. Investment demand for gold in SPDR Gold holding Trust, the biggest Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) increased to 921.03 tonnes as on August 29, 2013, up 0.82 per cent compared with 913.52 tonnes August 22, 2013. However, gold prices came under pressure in the mid of the last week on account of profit taking as India’s rupee sharply gained against the U.S. dollar, rising more than 200 basis points. The rupee rebounded from a record low 68.85 against the dollar when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) quoted that it will supply dollars to the largest oil buyers. The RBI will provide foreign currency to state-owned Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp., which the authority will repurchase after a specified period. Further, better than expected second quarter economic growth of the U.S. reinforced the case of Federal Reserve to slow stimulus measures. The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 2.5 percent annualized rate, up from an initial estimate of 1.7 percent. Americans filing for first time jobless claims also dropped higher than initially estimated. The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell more than forecast last week, a sign that the U.S. labor market continues to make progress. Jobless claims in the week ended Aug. 24 dropped 6,000 to 331,000 from a revised 337,000 the week before that was higher than initially reported, said the Labor Department ¬¬¬¬¬Price Movement in the Last week: MCX October gold prices opened the week at Rs 31,806/10 grams, initially surged sharply and found strong resistance at Rs 35,074/10 grams. Later prices slipped to Rs.32555/10 grams and are currently trading around Rs 32,705/10 grams (August 30, Friday at 5.20 PM) with a gain of Rs 949/10 grams. Outlook for this week: MCX October gold prices are expected to trade lower on a speculation that the Federal Reserve would scale back monetary stimulus on the back of better than expected second quarter economic growth report of the U.S. and due to a fall in U.S. jobless claims. Additionally, appreciating rupee is also negative factor for prices in domestic bourses. MCX October gold shall find supports at 31,800/31,500 levels and resistances at 33,930/35,074 levels. International Spot gold has supports at 1370/1350 and resistances at 1425/1445 levels. Copper: MCX August Copper futures surged sharply for the fifth consecutive week and made a historical high of Rs 512.65/kg on the back of sharp fall in Indian rupee. Global fundamentals also supported for uptrend in base metals as U.S. regional manufacturing and U.S. home prices raised while Chinese industrial profits also increased and German business confidence rose to the highest level in 16 months in August as per last week’s reports. However, copper prices slipped on Thursday last week as rupee appreciated against the U.S. dollar after the India’s central bank intervention in currency markets. Copper in the international came down in anticipation of the Federal Reserve would likely to scale back monetary stimulus after the U.S. second quarter GDP data outperformed the median estimation. The euro-area confidence among consumer, economic, industry and services are improved while German retail sales rose on the yearly basis but fell in the previous month, leaving a mixed view. Price movement in the last week: MCX August copper prices opened the week at Rs 476.45/kg, initially traded higher, but found strong resistance at Rs 512.65/kg. Later, prices fell sharply from higher levels and currently trading at Rs 474.30/kg (August 30, Friday at 5.30 PM) with a nominal loss of Rs 0.60/kg. Outlook for this week: MCX November copper is expected to trade slightly lower as U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to show pace of expansion is slowing but manufacturing PMIs of China, the U.K. and euro-zone are likely to report positive for base metals. Announcement of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy on Sep. 5 is an important event for global markets. Additionally, appreciating rupee against the dollar is also negative for prices at domestic bourses. MCX November copper shall find a supports at 468/455 levels and resistances at 500/524 levels. Crude: MCX September crude oil futures surged and hit an all time high of Rs 7784/barrel on expectation of supply disruptions from the Middle East. Crude oil prices in NYMEX rose to a two-year high as the U.S. and its allies are on the threshold of launching a military strike against Syria as alleged use of chemical weapons against its people. However, oil prices retreated when the U.K. and France confirmed they favor waiting for the UN’s investigation in this matter before supporting for military strike. The Energy Information Administration showed a higher than estimated oil inventory build, which was also a factor for oil prices to take down. The U.S. crude stockpiles increased 2.99 million barrels to 362 million against a median estimate of 750,000-barrel gain. Price movement in the last week: MCX September crude oil prices opened the week at Rs 6860/bbl, initially traded higher, but found strong resistance of Rs 7784/bbl. Later, prices fell sharply from high and currently trading at Rs 7217/bbl (August 30, Friday at 5.40 PM) with a gain of Rs 380/bbl. Outlook for this week: Crude oil is expected to trade under negative tone as the prospect of immanent military strikes on Syria receded after the U.K. and France decision to wait for UN’s investigation report. There are also concerns of economic stimulus easing in the world’s largest oil consuming country, U.S. which also capped oil prices this week. MCX September crude oil shall find a support at 6830/6650 levels and resistance 7784/8000 levels. Soybean: NCDEX October soybean futures surged sharply in the beginning of the last week on account of sharp fall in Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar as exporters of soy meal would get more returns on meal exports. Further, strong gains in overseas market on speculation that lower yield due to dry weather in U.S also provided support to the prices. However, prices came under pressure in the later part of the week on account of profit taking after sharp rise from the last few trading sessions. Slight gains in Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar after RBI’s intervention are also added bearish market sentiments as soy meal exports would be less attractive. Progress of Sowing Acreage of kharif Oilseeds: As per Ministry of Agriculture (GOI), Kharif oilseeds sowing area covered to 188.16 lakh hectares (lh) till August 29, 2013, up 12.50% against 167.13 lakh ha last year during the same period. Kharif oilseeds includes soybean (121.72 lh), groundnut (41.71 lh), Sesamum (13.88 lh), Sunflower (2.23 lh), Niger Seed (1.23 lh) and Castor Seed (7.38 lh). Area covered under soybean throughout India was 121.72 lakh ha, up 14% compared to 106.83 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean in Madhya Pradesh was 63.66 lakh ha till August 29, 2013 compared to 58.12 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean in Maharashtra was 38.99 lakh ha compared to 32.13 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean in Rajasthan was 10.59 lakh ha compared to 9.87 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. As per USDA’s weekly export sales report, net weekly export sales for soybeans showed a cancelation of 3,200 tonnes for the current marketing year, 868,700 tonnes of 2013/14 and as of August 22nd, cumulative sales stand at 52% of the USDA forecast for 2013/2014 vs. the 5 year average of 33%. Sales of 336,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net meal sales came in 162,100 for the new crop year and cumulative sales for the old crop year continue to be over 100% of the current USDA forecast. Net soybean oil sales came in at 6,700 tonnes for the current marketing year and 17,900 for the next marketing year for a total of 24,600. Cumulative sales stand at 93% of the USDA forecast for 2012/2013 versus a 5 year average of 92%. Sales of 12,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Outlook for this week: Soybean is expected trade slightly lower on the back of lower demand at prevailing prices. Further, higher sowing acreage this year as compared to last year is also negative for prices. Additionally, appreciation in Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar after RBI’s intervention is also negative for prices as exports would be less attractive. NCDEX October Soybean shall find a support at 3400/3310 levels and resistance 3700/3820 levels.