Mcx....futures.....bullion....copper......crude......soyabean....

Bullion: MCX October Gold futures surged sharply in the early part of the last week due to India’s rupee weakened against the U.S. dollar. India’s rupee plunged again to break Rs.68.61 per the U.S. dollar in the spot market when the Standard & Poor’s reiterated its view that the nation’s credit rating may be reduced to junk. Foreign exchange reserves of the country are lowest among BRIC nations and have dropped 13 percent to $278 billion since a 2011 peak. Further, tensions in the Middle East escalated as Israel tested its missile defense system and the U.S. President Barack Obama sought of support in Congress for a “limited intervention in Syria” which boosted gold demand as hedge against inflation and political uncertainty emerging in Middle-East region. However, gold prices reversed early rally in the later part of the last week when India’s rupee sharply gained against the U.S. dollar. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) aggressively sold dollars to prevent the currency from falling to a record low. India’s rupee reached a one-week high at 65.53 against the U.S. dollar in the spot market after the RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan announced a plan to provide concession “swaps” to banks’ foreign currency deposits, which will boost reserves by $10 billion. India’s lower house of parliament passed a bill allowing international holdings (cap 26%) in the nation’s pension funds to revive the economy. Further, gold in the international market fell as the U.S. faced opposition from Russia and the U.K. on military strike against Syria. Additionally, positive U.S. economic data also pressured bullion, as per Institute of Supply Management (ISM), the U.S. services sector grew and manufacturing sector also expanded more than expectation in August, but trade deficit widened to $39.1 billion in July from $34.5 billion prior month. Leaders from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) have agreed to create a $100 billion pool of currency reserves to guard against financial shocks, Chinese Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said. The scale of the reserve arrangement will be $100 billion and China will contribute the lion’s share of this, Zhu told at the Group of 20 summit in St. Petersburg, Russia. ¬¬¬¬¬Price Movement in the Last week: MCX October gold prices opened the week at Rs 32,815/10 grams, initially surged higher and found strong resistance at Rs 35,549/10 grams. Later prices fell sharply from high and touched a low of Rs 31,564/10 grams and currently trading around Rs 31,935/10 grams (September 06, Friday at 6.02 PM) with a huge loss of Rs 1054/10 grams. Outlook for this week: MCX October gold prices are expected to trade slightly lower on the back of improved economic growth in U.S. and Euro-Zone. The euro gained as euro-area, the 17-nation currency bloc. economy returned to growth to recorded 0.3 percent in the second quarter after a record long recession. Further, Investment demand for gold in SPDR Gold holding Trust, the biggest Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) declined to 919.23 tonnes as on September 05, 2013, down 0.20 per cent compared with 921.03 tonnes August 30, 2013. Additionally, appreciating rupee also pressured bullion in domestic bourses as there is a hope among market participants that the new Reserve Bank governor, Mr Raghuram Rajan will bring a new approach to defense of the rupee. MCX October gold shall find supports at 30,840/30,240 levels and resistances at 33,000/34,550 levels. International Spot gold has supports at 1335/1320 and resistances at 1400/1420 levels. Copper: MCX November Copper futures traded higher in the beginning of the last week as manufacturing expanded in the world’s largest economy, U.S. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) of U.S. showed the Purchase Managers Index (PMI) increased to 55.7 in August from 55.4 a month earlier. Additionally, sharp fall in Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar also provided support to the copper prices at domestic bourses. However, MCX November copper prices slipped on Wednesday last week as rupee appreciated against the U.S. dollar, while international markets fell in an anticipation of Federal Reserve to scale back monetary stimulus after a rebound in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Metals ignored positive market data when the euro zone composite index, which covers services and factory output expanded for a second month in August. Price movement in the last week: MCX November copper prices opened the week at Rs 488.50/kg, initially traded higher, but found strong resistance at Rs 510.50/kg. Later, prices fell sharply from higher levels and touched a low of Rs 477.20/kg, currently trading at Rs 481/kg (September 06, Friday at 6.00 PM) with a loss of Rs 5.95/kg. Outlook for this week: MCX November copper is expected to trade slightly lower China’s non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.9 in August from 54.1 in July. Factory orders in the U.S. dropped 2.4 percent in July and investors anticipated possibility of U.S. Federal Reserve would scale back monetary stimulus after service sector expanded more than expectation in August. Additionally, appreciating rupee against the dollar is also negative for prices at domestic bourses. MCX November copper shall find a supports at 468/455 levels and resistances at 500/511 levels. Crude: MCX September crude oil futures surged higher in the early part of the last week as supply concerns escalated due to political tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. planned a military strike on Syria after the former allegedly used of chemical weapons against its people. Natural gas climbed to five-week high in NYMEX on concerns as hot weather in U.S. may stoke demand and possibility of supply disruptions during this Atlantic hurricane season. However, crude oil futures came under pressure after the U.S. faced opposition from Russia on military strike against Syria. There are concerns eased over military strikes on Syria as the U.K. and Russia are opposing the U.S.’s move before United Nations (UN) resolution on conclusive proof on usage of Chemical weapons by Syria. As per the U.S. Energy information Administration (EIA), the U.S. crude oil inventories are decreased by 1.8 million barrels from the previous week and are at 360.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels and distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.5 million barrels last week. U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 8.3 million barrels per day in the last week, down by 119 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Oil slightly recovered after the EIA’s crude oil weekly inventory report but couldn’t sustain its gains due to a technical sell-off. Price movement in the last week: MCX September crude oil prices opened the week at Rs 7190/bbl, initially traded higher, but found strong resistance of Rs 7519/bbl. Later, prices fell sharply from high and and touched a low of Rs 7015/bbl, currently trading at Rs 7134/bbl (September 06, Friday at 6.00 PM) with a loss of Rs 112/bbl. Outlook for this week: Crude oil is expected to trade under negative tone as the prospect of immanent military strikes on Syria receded after the U.K. and France decision to wait for UN’s investigation report. There are also concerns of economic stimulus easing in the world’s largest oil consuming country, U.S. which would also cap oil prices this week. MCX September crude oil shall find a support at 6860/6670 levels and resistance 7500/7784 levels. Soybean: NCDEX November soybean futures traded slightly higher in the beginning of the last week on account of sharp fall in Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar as exporters of soy meal would get more returns on meal exports. Further, firm overseas market on speculation that lower yield due to dry weather in U.S also provided support to the prices. However, prices came under pressure in the later part of the week on account of profit taking after sharp rise from the last few trading sessions. Further, higher sowing acreage which will translate into higher output and harvesting of fresh crop is expected in next week. As per Ministry of Agriculture (GOI), Kharif oilseeds sowing area covered to 191.64 lakh hectares till September 06, 2013, up 12.85% against 169.81 lakh hectares last year during the same period. Additionally, strong gains in Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar are also added bearish market sentiments as soy meal exports would be less attractive. Outlook for this week: Soybean is expected trade slightly lower on the back of improved arrivals and harvesting of new crop is expected in next week in Madhya Pradesh. Further, higher sowing acreage this year as compared to last year is also negative for prices. Additionally, appreciation in Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar is also negative for prices as exports would be less attractive. NCDEX November Soybean shall find a support at 3400/3290 levels and resistance 3620/3705 levels.