MCX......bullion......copper......crude......soyabean........futured trand.......

Bullion: MCX October Gold futures traded slightly higher in the early part of the last week on speculation that demand for the metal soar before China’s Golden Week holiday as lower prices lure buyers. The ‘Golden Week’ break in the world’s largest consumer after India begins Oct. 1, when consumers typically increase bullion purchases. Further, increasing concern that U.S. budget negotiations have stalled, raising the risk of a government shutdown. The Senate is set to hold a test vote on legislation passed by the House of Representatives to cover federal spending through Dec. 15; the debate may extend past a Sept. 30 deadline. However, gold prices slid on Thursday after a report showed the U.S. jobless claims last week dropped, boosting speculation that the Federal Reserve will scale back stimulus soon. The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly decreased by 5,000 to 305,000 in the week ended Sept. 21. Further, investment demand for gold in SPDR Gold holding Trust, the biggest Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) declined to 909.59 tonnes as on September 26, 2013, down 0.07 per cent compared with 910.19 tonnes September 20, 2013. Additionally, strength in India’s rupee also added bearish market sentiments at domestic bourses. ¬¬¬¬¬Price Movement in the Last week: MCX October gold prices opened the week at Rs 29,812/10 grams, initially traded higher, but found strong resistance of Rs 30,290/10 grams. Later prices fell sharply from high and touched a low of Rs 29,540/10 grams and currently trading around Rs 29,907/10 grams (September 28, Friday at 4.15 PM) with a nominal loss of Rs 5/10 grams. Outlook for this week: MCX December gold prices are expected to trade slightly lower on the back of an improvement of employment conditions in the world’s largest economy. Outcomes of U.S. payrolls data, Federal Reserve Chairman Speech and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy are important to move bullion market this week. Prices at domestic bourses are also pressured as India’s rupee is strengthening against the U.S. dollar. MCX December gold shall find supports at 29,140/28,700 levels and resistances at 30,200/30,700 levels. International Spot gold has supports at 1290/1272 and resistances at 1355/1375 levels. Copper: MCX November Copper futures traded slightly lower in the last week as investors examining on looming political showdown over the U.S. budget. Purchases of new U.S. homes rose in August, capping the weakest two months this year, showing the fallout from mortgage rates at a two-year high is cooling the real-estate rebound. Sales increased 7.9 percent to a 421,000 annualized pace following a 390,000 rate in the prior month that was less than previously estimated and demand slumped 14.1 percent in July, figures showed from the Commerce Department. Orders for U.S. equipment such as computers and machinery climbed less than forecast in August, indicating a strengthening in business spending will take time to develop. The Markit Economics preliminary index of U.S. manufacturing fell to 52.8 in September from a final reading of 53.1 at the end of last month. German business confidence rose less than economists forecast in September amid caution over the recovery in the euro area. The Ifo institute’s business climate index, climbed to 107.7 from a revised 107.6 in August, compares with a median forecast of 108. Price movement in the last week: MCX November copper prices opened the week at Rs 465/kg, traded lower, but found strong support at Rs 455.20/kg. Later, prices bounced back from low and currently trading at Rs 462.85/kg (September 28, Friday at 4.20 PM) with a nominal loss of Rs 3.15/kg. Outlook for this week: MCX November copper is expected to trade with mixed sentiments as U.S. home sales rebounded last month, adding to signs of increasing demand for the metal used in pipes and wiring while global refined copper deficit was expanded to 132,000 tonnes in June from a supply shortfall of 21,000 a month earlier said International Copper Study Group (ICSG) in its latest report. However, gains in rupee may restrict from rising sharply at domestic bourses. MCX-November copper shall find a supports at 451/442 levels and resistances at 470/480 levels. Crude: MCX October crude oil futures traded lower in the third consecutive week as U.S. oil inventories unexpectedly increased and technical sell-off weighed on market. As per the Energy Information Administration, crude oil inventories rose 2.64 million barrels to 358.3 million barrels. Gasoline supplies increased 217,000 barrels to 216.2 million and distillate fuels, including diesel and heating oil, slid 234,000 barrels to 130.9 million. Further, there is a speculation that the United Nations (UN) resolution this week will reduce the likelihood of a U.S.-led military strike against Syria. On Thursday, United Nations diplomats moved closer to adopting their first resolution on Syria after the United States and Russia reached agreement on how Damascus will turn over its chemical weapons arsenal to international supervision. Price movement in the last week: MCX October crude oil prices opened the week at Rs 6622/bbl, initially traded mildly higher, but found strong resistance of Rs 6644/bbl. Later, prices came under pressure and touched a low of Rs 6370/bbl and currently trading at Rs 6430/bbl (September 28, Friday at 4.20 PM) with a loss of Rs 207/bbl. Outlook for this week: Crude oil is expected to trade lower on record high inventories and strength of currency would also pressurize in domestic bourses. However, U.S. economic growth may restrict from sharp fall in prices. MCX October crude oil shall find a support at 6190/6100 levels and resistance 6580/6800 levels. Soybean: NCDEX November soybean futures traded slightly higher in the last week on account of slow harvesting due to continuous rains in major growing areas of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Further, there is fear of quality issue in new crop among the market participants due to incessant rain at this stage also provided support to the prices. However, higher production in first advance estimate by Ministry of Agriculture restricted from sharp rise in prices. The Ministry of Agriculture released its 1st Advance Estimates on 24th September, whereby 2013-14 soybean output it projected at 15.68 million tonnes as against 14.67 million tonnes in 2012-13. As per Ministry of Agriculture (GOI), Kharif oilseeds sowing area covered to 193.24 lakh hectares till September 20, 2013, up 11% against 173.95 lakh hectares last year during the same period. Kharif oilseeds includes soybean (122.17 lh), groundnut (43.02 lh), Sesamum (14.44 lh), Sunflower (2.42 lh), Niger Seed (1.85 lh) and Castor Seed (9.34 lh). Area covered under soybean throughout India was 122.17 lakh ha, up 14.27% compared to 106.91 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean in Madhya Pradesh was 63.80 lakh ha till September 20, 2013 compared to 58.12 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean in Maharashtra was 39.16 lakh ha compared to 32.19 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean in Rajasthan was 10.59 lakh ha compared to 9.87 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. As per USDA’s weekly export sales report, net export sales for soybeans came in at a whopping 2.816 million tonnes which was higher than expected. Cumulative sales stand at 68.9% of the USDA forecast for 2013/2014 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 46.9%. Sales of just 234,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Meal sales showed cancellation of 60,400 metric tonnes for the old crop season and 307,100 for new crop for a total of 246,700. Cumulative soybean meal sales stand at 27.4% of the USDA forecast versus a 5 year average of 18.8%. Sales of 116,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Outlook for this week: Soybean is expected trade slightly higher on the back of slow harvesting due to rains in major producing states. Further, there is talk about quality issue in new crop due to continuous rains in at this time is also positive for prices. However, higher production estimates this year as compared to last year coupled with arrival pressure of new crops may restrict from sharp rise in prices. NCDEX November soybean shall find a support at 3390/3350 levels and resistance 3572/3622 levels.