mcx bullion........gold.......copper.....crude.......soyabeen..........trand

Bullion: MCX December gold futures traded slightly higher in the beginning of the last week as investors assessed the deadlock between U.S. lawmakers over the debt limit and government shutdown which increased demand for gold as safe haven, and the implication for monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve. The White House prepared to nominate Janet Yellen, the key architect of the Fed’s unprecedented stimulus program, to head the central bank as President Barack Obama said that he’s willing to talk to Republicans about anything once lawmakers end the closure and increase borrowing authority. Confidence among U.S. small businesses fell in September to the lowest level in three months as more companies grew pessimistic about the economic outlook. The National Federation of Independent Business’s optimism index decreased to 93.9 last month from 94.1, said the Washington-based group. The U.S. economic optimism index fell to 38.4 after Sept.’s 46 versus estimated 44 from economists’ survey. Economic outlook fell to 35.8 versus 45.9 last month and personal finance fell to 48.3 versus 54.3 last month. However, gold prices fell in later part of the last week on increased confidence that U.S. lawmakers will reach a deal to avoid default and evidence that Asian demand for physical bullion weakening. Some investors lost faith in gold as a store of value. Further, investment demand for gold in SPDR Gold holding Trust, the biggest Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) declined to 896.38 tonnes as on October 10, 2013, down 0.40 per cent compared with 899.99 tonnes October 7, 2013. ¬¬¬¬¬Price Movement in the Last week: MCX December gold prices opened the week at Rs 29,259/10 grams, initially traded slightly higher, but found strong resistance of Rs 29,750/10 grams. Later prices fell sharply from high and touched a low of Rs 28,537/10 grams and currently trading around Rs 28,693/10 grams (October 11, Friday at 5.50 PM) with a loss of Rs 396/10 grams. Outlook for this week: MCX December gold prices are expected to trade lower as US lawmakers moving closer towards solving its debt ceiling issue. Strength in rupee against the U.S dollar is also negative for prices. Technically, MCX December gold breached 7 weeks low and trading below 9 & 18 weeks EMA which indicates bearish market sentiments. MCX December gold shall find supports at 28,350/28,000 levels and resistances at 29,300/29,750 levels. International Spot gold has supports at 1264/1235 and resistances at 1330/1350 levels. Copper: MCX November copper futures traded lower in the second consecutive week on account of strong gains in Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar. Germany manufacturing orders posted their second straight monthly decline in August, falling well short of economists estimates. Orders slipped 0.3 percent in August from 1.9 percent decline in July. Price movement in the last week: MCX November copper prices opened the week at Rs 455.50/kg, initially traded mildly higher, but found strong resistance at Rs 459.40/kg. Later, prices fell sharply and touched a low of Rs 440.05/kg and currently trading at Rs 443.90/kg (October 11, Friday at 5.50 PM) with a loss of Rs 10.30/kg. Outlook for this week: MCX November copper is expected to trade lower on account of uncertainty in global economy. Technically, MCX November copper breached 7 weeks low and trading below 9 weeks EMA which indicates bearish market sentiments. MCX-November copper shall find a supports at 432/424 levels and resistances at 456/462 levels. Crude: MCX October crude oil futures traded lower in the sixth consecutive week as U.S. crude oil supplies rose to 6.81 million barrels last week, the biggest gain in year, the Energy Information Administration (EIA). U.S. is the largest user of crude oil in the world, accounting for 21% of global consumption last year, according to BP Plc’s Statistical Review of the World Energy. Further, release of Libya’s Prime Minister Ali Zaidan who was kidnapped from Tripoli hotel is also added bearish market sentiments. Price movement in the last week: MCX October crude oil prices opened the week at Rs 6400/bbl, initially traded mildly higher, but found resistance of Rs 6470/bbl. Later, prices fell sharply from high and touched a low of Rs 6203/bbl and currently trading at Rs 6234/bbl (October 11, Friday at 5.50 PM) with a loss of Rs 152/bbl. Outlook for this week: Crude oil is expected to trade lower on the back of rise in inventories and strength of currency would also pressurize in domestic bourses. Technically, MCX October crude breached 7 weeks low and trading below 9 weeks EMA which indicates bearish market sentiments. MCX October crude oil shall find a support at 6100/5920 levels and resistance 6360/6470 levels. Soybean: NCDEX November soybean futures traded higher in the third consecutive week on fear of quality issue in new crop among the market participants due to incessant rain at the time of harvest. Further, record high export of domestic oil-meals figures for the month of September 2013 also provided support to the prices. According to Solvent Extractors Association of export of oil-meals in the month of September 2013 was 294,830 tonnes, up about 104% compared to 144,787 tonnes in September 2012. Out of total oil-meals exports, export of soybean-meal in September 2013 was 173,381 tonnes, up about 2557% compared to 6,525 tonnes in September 2012. The overall export of oil meals during the April to September 2013 (6 months) is 1,651,265 tonnes, up by 1.50 % only compared with 1,627,304 tonnes during the same period last year. Major Imports of Oil-meals from India: Oil-meal import by South Korea from India during April-Sept. 2013 is reported at 518,178 tons compared to 459,303 tons last year consisting of 231,083 tons of rapeseed meal, 286,785 tons of castor meal and small quantity of 310 tons of soybean meal. Iran imported of 571,171 tons compared to 456,687 tons, consisting 568,509 tons of soybean meal, and 2,662 tons of rapeseed meal. Thailand imported of 100,248 tons compared to 119,596 tons, consisting 12,599 tons of soybean meal, and 87,649 tons of rapeseed meal. Vietnam imported 67,191 tons compared to 205,878 tons last year consisting of 13,020 tons of rapeseed meal, 797 tons of castor meal, 726 tons of groundnut meal, 1,051 tons of soybean meal and 51,597 tons of rice bran extraction. As per Ministry of Agriculture (GOI), Kharif oilseeds sowing area covered to 194.94 lakh hectares till October 10, 2013, up 10% against 177.11 lakh hectares last year during the same period. Kharif oilseeds includes soybean (122.20 lh), groundnut (43.20 lh), Sesamum (14.92 lh), Sunflower (2.43 lh), Niger Seed (1.94 lh) and Castor Seed (9.84 lh). Area covered under soybean throughout India was 122.20 lakh ha, up 14% compared to 106.89 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean in Madhya Pradesh was 63.80 lakh ha till October 10, 2013 compared to 58.12 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean in Maharashtra was 39.17 lakh ha compared to 32.19 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean in Rajasthan was 10.59 lakh ha compared to 9.87 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Price movement in the last week: NCDEX November soybean prices opened the week at Rs 3517/quintal traded higher, but found resistance of Rs 3709/quintal and finally managed to close at Rs 364/quintal on Friday, October 11, 2013 with a gain of Rs 140/quintal (up 4%). Outlook for this week: Soybean is expected trade slightly higher on account of improved export demand of soy meal coupled with quality concern in new crop due to continuous rains at the time of harvest is also positive for prices. However, higher production estimates for this year as compared to last year coupled with arrival pressure of new crops may restrict from sharp rise in prices. Technically, NCDEX November soybean made a new high and trading above 9 & 18 weeks EMA which indicates bullish market sentiments. NCDEX November soybean shall find a support at 3580/3510 levels and resistance 3700/3830 levels.