Indian Wheat Export Volume may Decrease Due To Lower Pace Of Export

With ongoing phased election schedule up to 12th May 2014 and pending decisions on the continuation of grain export due to election commission regulatory wheat export opportunity for India is vanishing fast,specially when prices in the global market are ruling higher and harvesting on full swing with record production prospects.Global market feel that wheat price may move up if weather condition(drought) in US wheat growing belts get worse,long winter can delay ripening period of wheat in Canada and El-nino system can affect Australian wheat output.After the formation of the new govtment,possibly in the third week of MAy,clearity on grain export front might come.Govt may start wheat export tender process again.Till then crop size would be more clear. Private traders are still exporting wheat in the range of $285 to $290 per tonne on FOB basis(Kandla).However,quantity is not more than40,to 50 thousand tonne per month.company. Earlier this month, the government sold 100,000 tons in two tenders issued by state-owned companies.The new season started with 20 million tonne old wheat including private stock.This year production would cross95 million tonne.This means availability would increase in the market and lower export volume at this point of time would increase stock burden once again. At procuement front govt would meet its target of 31 million tonne easily.Uttar Pradesh and Bihar may contribute much more than last year as realized yield is good in both the states.Higher prices in global market may encourage wheat export, however,if prices decreased on improved weather condition(unlikely as of now)it would impact adversely wheat export volume from India.