Kharif Rice Production under Threat on Emerging El Ni�o Occurrence.

Production of kharif rice is unlikely to increase despite proposed MSPhike of paddy in kharif season 2014-15. Emerging fear of lowerrainfall due to El- Nino occurrence (likely) may impact main kharif rice production in eastern, northern and southern India. The impact of lower rainfall would be minimum in states like Punjab and Haryana where irrigation facilities is available and farmers have option to switch from common paddy to basmati paddy in these regions, however major impact on kharif rice could be seen in other eastern and southern parts where farmers are mainly dependent on monsoon rains. Emerging scenario may impact the effect of proposed hikingof MSP and also it may impact common rice price in the second half ofthe year, which ultimately encourage inflation. It may create problem for new government that will come in power by May end. If Indian main rice growing belts receives 20% lower rainfall from five years average, it may reduce main crop size by 6-7% in 2014-15 from last year rice production of 105 million tons. Its impact gets more severe percentage loss of main crop production may increase further.