MCX June Gold...Copper......Crude....Soyabean...... futures....

Bullion: MCX June Gold futures plunged below the three week’s low in the last week as strong dollar curbed demand for gold as an alternative investment. The dollar index breached 32 month’s high against six major currencies on as claims for U.S. jobless benefits unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level in more than five years. The European Central Bank (ECB) clashed with Germany over how the European Union will handle struggling banks and European economy shrunk more than estimation on extending a record sixth quarter recession for the quarter ending March also provided support to the US dollar. According to World Gold Council, demand for gold dropped 13 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier as ETP sales outweighed a surge in purchases of coins, bars and jewelry in China and India. Drop in investment demand for gold Exchange Trade Fund also added bearish market sentiments. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the World's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined to 1041.42 tonnes as on May 16, 2013, down 0.97% as compared to 1051.65 tonnes on May 13, 2013. ¬¬¬¬¬Price Movement in the Last week: MCX June gold prices opened the week at Rs 26,888/10 grams and fell sharply, but found good support at Rs 25860/10 grams and currently trading at Rs 25,983/10 grams (May 17, Friday at 6.30 PM) with a huge loss of Rs 1016/10 grams as compared with previous week’s close. Outlook for this week: MCX June gold is expected to trade lower on account of optimism in global economy. Declining demand of gold investments due to huge gains in dollar is negative for prices. MCX June gold shall find supports at 25,270/25,000 levels and resistances at 26,300/26,590 levels. Spot gold has supports at 1320/1305 and resistances at 1405/1430 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell MCX June Gold between 26,250-26,300, SL above 26,600 and Target- 25,270/25,000. Copper: MCX June Copper futures traded lower in the beginning of the last week on account of weak China’s economic recovery as fixed asset investment decelerated last month and industrial production grew 9.3 percent from a year earlier and retail sales climber 12.8 percent. Further, reports showed that the Gross Domestic Product of European Union (EU) and Germany failed to meet the estimation. In addition, U.S. industrial production in April declined most in eight months and manufacturing index of New York region unexpectedly shrunk in May. However, from the mid of the last week, base metal prices bounced back on the back optimism in the global economy. Euro area exports increased 2.8 percent in March and imports decreased 1 percent. Trade surplus of the euro zone widened to 18.7 billion euros from 12.7 billion euros. U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level in more than five years and Japan economy grew at 3.5 percent is also provided support for base metals prices. Further, India’s industrial output in March expanded at the fastest pace in five months after the central bank eased interest rates to revive economic growth. Production at factories, utilities and mines climbed 2.5 percent from a year earlier after a revised 0.5 percent gain in February, the Central Statistical Office said in a statement. Price movement in the last week: MCX June Copper prices opened the week at Rs 409.20/kg, initially traded slightly higher and touched a high of Rs 411.55/kg. Later, prices slipped and touched a low of Rs 392.60/kg and currently trading at Rs 405.80/kg (May 17, Friday at 6.25 PM) with a loss of Rs 5/kg as compared with previous week’s close. Outlook for this week: MCX June Copper is expected to trade higher on account of improved global economic growth. More than expected growth of Japan is positive for base metal prices. MCX June Copper shall find a supports at 393/387 levels and resistances at 416/422 levels. Recommendation for this week: Buy MCX June Copper between 393-395, SL 386 and Target- 416/421.50. Crude: MCX May Crude oil futures traded lower in the beginning of last week as the International Energy Agency (IEA) said global trade in light sweet crude oil will drop by 0.5 percent annually from 2012 to 2018 as North America reduces it imports because of rising domestic production. America will add 2.7 million barrel to its existing oil production. Lower demand from the largest oil consuming country, U.S. Fall in New York manufacturing and U.S. industrial production also pressurized oil prices. OPEC boosted crude output in April to the highest in five months as Saudi Arabia increased production. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries produced 30.46 million barrels a day last month, up from 30.18 million in March. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, pumped 9.27 million barrels a day in April, rising from 9.13 million in March. However, crude oil prices recovered from the mid of the last week after the Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its’ weekly inventory report, showed an unexpected draw down of 624 thousand barrels. The euro-area trade data and higher than estimated Japan’s gross domestic product also provided positive support for crude oil prices. Price movement in the last week: MCX May crude oil prices opened the week at Rs 5237/bbl, initially fell sharply and touched a low of Rs 5064/bbl, Later, prices bounced back sharply from low and currently trading at Rs 5258/bbl (May 17, Friday at 6.25 PM) with a nominal gain of Rs 6/bbl. Outlook for this week: MCX May crude oil is expected to trade higher on account of increased demand due to favorable global economic data, particularly from US and Japan. MCX May crude oil shall find a support at 5130/5000 levels and resistance 5330/5400 levels. Recommendation for this week: Buy MCX May Crude Oil between 5130-5150, SL-below 5000 and Target- 5330/5400. Soybean: NCDEX June soybean futures traded slightly lower on account of lower export figures of domestic oil meals in the month of April 2013 and forecasts of normal monsoon for this year as sowing acreage may increase is also added bearish market sentiments. According to Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, export of oil-meals in the month of April 2013 is heavily reduced to 199,168 tons compared to 403,090 tons in April 2012 i.e. down by 51% mainly due to disparity in crushing and high prices of soybean resulted into less availability for the export. As per USDA’s weekly export sales report, net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 15,300 tonnes for the current marketing year and 346,600 for the next marketing year for a total of 361,900. As of May 9th, cumulative sales stand at 99% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 96%. Sales of 15,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast, nearly unchanged from the week prior. Net meal sales came in at 82,800 tonnes for the current marketing year and 109,700 for the next marketing year for a total of 192,500. Old crop sales were up noticeably from last week but down 44% from the 4 week average. Cumulative sales stand at 98% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 79%. Sales of 9,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast, down from 12,400 the week prior. Net oil sales showed a cancelation of 5,300 tonnes for the current marketing year and cumulative sales stand at 83% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 73%. Sales of 8,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast, up from 7,700 tonnes the week prior. Outlook: NCDEX June soybean is expected to trade slightly lower on the back of lower export demand of domestic soy meal and forecasts of normal monsoon for this year as soybean sowing acreage may increase (soybean is a kharif crop). NCDEX June soybean shall find a support at 3780/3740 levels and Resistance 3950/4000 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell NCDEX June Soybean between 3930-3950, SL-above 4000 and Target- 3800/3750.