Bullion.....Copper:.......... Energy: ... Soybean: ......futures tips

Bullion: MCX June Gold futures were volatile in the last week. Initially, traded lower on account of profit taking after sharp rise in the previous week. However, gold prices bounced back on Thursday after U.S. continued its monetary stimulus as the economy grew less than expectation in the first quarter and the inflation numbers were at satisfactory level. Further, gold surged on liquidity concerns after the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the prime lending rate to record low (0.50%) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement showed that Fed prepared to increase or decrease the pace of bond purchases. This statement is countered discussion of the timing of a reduction in purchases at the Fed’s March meeting. Demand for coins and jewelry expanded from the U.S. to China and India. Coin sales by the U.S. Mint are set for the highest since December 2009, while inventories monitored by the Comex tumbled last week to the lowest level since July 2008. Additionally, rise in domestic physical demand ahead of wedding season also provided support to the prices. ¬¬¬¬¬Price Movement in the Last week: MCX June gold prices opened the week at Rs 27,200/10 grams, initially traded lower, but found strong support of Rs 26,365/10 grams, Later, gold prices spurt and currently trading at Rs 27,045/10 grams (May 03, Friday at 5.55 PM) with a nominal loss of Rs 144/10 grams as compared with previous week’s close. Outlook for this week: MCX June gold futures are likely to trade under sideways pattern. Gold prices may rise due to liquidity concerns after the world’s largest gold consuming country, India cut repurchasing rate, the European Central Bank reduced prime lending rate to record low and the Fed comments speculative comments on bond purchasing are supportive. But the investment demand for gold at four years low from Exchange Trade Product (ETP)s/ Exchange Trade Fund (ETF)s. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the World's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined to 1069.21 tonnes as on May 02, 2013, down 1.93% as compared to 1090.27 tonnes on April 25, 2013. MCX June gold shall find supports at 26,365/26,000 levels and resistances at 27,450/27925 levels. Spot gold has supports at 1440/1410 and resistances at 1500/1530 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell MCX June Gold between 27400-27450, SL 27930 and Target- 26365/26000. Copper: MCX June Copper futures traded lower in the last week as world’s largest metals consuming country, China’s manufacturing declined last month, adding to signs that growth in the world’s second-biggest economy will cool for a second straight quarter. HSBC’s China manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) expanded at 50.5, which is lower than the previous month’s 51.6 level. The euro-area manufacturing contracted for the 21st straight month in April, showing pessimism in metals consumption. However, copper prices bounced back from the mid of the last week and traded higher on the back of U.S. previously owned homes climbed larger than estimation in March. As building construction accounts for 40% of the consumption from total copper produced world wide attracted buying interest. The second largest metals consuming country, U.S. trade deficit shrunk 11 percent, narrowed more than forecast in March to its second-lowest level in three years. Further, India cut interest rates for a third straight meeting to revive growth, extending the only reduction in borrowing costs among major emerging nations this year. The repurchase rate cut to 7.25 percent from 7.50 percent, said the Reserve Bank of India. Price movement in the last week: MCX June Copper prices opened the week at Rs 385.90/kg, initially traded lower, but found strong support at Rs 366.35/kg. Later, surged sharply and currently trading at Rs 391.55/kg (May 03, Friday at 6.05 PM) with a gain of Rs 5/kg as compared with previous week’s close. Outlook for this week: MCX June Copper is expected to trade slightly higher on account of improved global economic growth coupled with lower inventories of copper at LME ware houses. MCX June Copper shall find a supports at 372/365 levels and resistances at 403/410 levels. Recommendation for this week: Buy MCX June Copper between 372-375, SL 364 and Target- 403/410. Energy: MCX May Crude oil futures traded lower in the beginning of the last on the back of record high of US crude oil inventory. As per Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude inventories rose by 6.7 million barrels last week to 395.3 million, highest level in 82 years. Supplies were last at that level in 1931, based on monthly figures. Natural gas fell sharply on Thursday on the back of more than expected US natural gas inventories. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, inventories rose 2.5 percent, or 43 billion cubic feet, to 1.777 trillion in the week ended April 26. However, crude oil futures bounced back in the mid of the last of the last week and snap previous falls on the back of improved global economy. NYMEX crude oil futures advance to near its highest closing level in more than two weeks as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) basket reference price rebounded above $100 per barrel and traders optimistic about central banks maintaining their monetary stimulus and the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision and Federal Reserve policy meet were also supportive for oil on demand concerns. U.S. trade deficit narrowed, non-farm productivity gained and jobless claims dropped to the lowest level in five years also provided support to the prices. Price movement in the last week: MCX May crude oil prices opened the week at Rs 5066/bbl, initially traded lower, but found strong support at Rs 4841/bbl. Later, prices surged sharply and currently trading at Rs 5131/bbl (May 03, Friday at 6.10 PM) with a gain of Rs 60/bbl. Outlook for this week: MCX May crude oil is expected to trade higher on account of increased demand due to favorable global economic data. MCX May crude oil shall find a support at 4950/4840 levels and resistance 5240/5300 levels. Recommendation for this week: Buy MCX May Crude Oil between 4950-4970, SL-4839 and Target- 5240/5280. Soybean: NCDEX June Soybean futures traded slightly higher in the last week on the back of lower supply in domestic markets as farmers are holding their stocks in anticipation of higher prices in coming days. Additionally, Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grains Exchange kept their 2012 soybean production forecast unchanged at 48.50 million tonnes as compared with the current USDA estimate of 51.50 million tonnes. Brazil's government lowered its forecast for the 2012/13 soybean crop from 82.1 million tonnes to 81.9 million tonnes. Data released by National Oilseed Processors Association showed the U.S. soybean crush rose marginally to 137.08 million bushels in March, in line with forecasts for a slight gain from 136.3 million bushels in February. As per Safras & Mercado, the 2012-13 soybean harvest has advanced to 94 percent of the estimated area as on 26 April 2013 from 86 percent in the previous week. As per USDA’s weekly export sales report, net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at -109,800 tonnes for the current marketing year and 1,341,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 1,231,300. Total sales were viewed as positive but China canceled 276,300 tonnes of old crop purchases which help to offset the upside advance. Some of the tonnage was offset by purchases by Mexico and Indonesia. This was the second consecutive reporting period in which China reported a cancelation of tonnage further narrowing the cumulative sales pace to the cumulative shipment pace. As of April 25th, cumulative sales stand at 99% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 94%. Sales of 24,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast, up from 17,600 the week prior. Net meal sales came in at 93,200 tonnes for the current marketing year and 55,700 for the next marketing year for a total of 148,900. Cumulative meal sales stand at 102% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 76%. Net oil sales came in at a sluggish 1,100 tonnes for the current marketing year and cumulative oil sales stand at 80% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 71%. Sales of 9,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Outlook: NCDEX June soybean is expected to trade higher on account of declining arrivals in domestic market as farmers are holding their stocks in anticipation of higher prices in coming days. However, lower export demand of domestic soy meal and forecasts of normal monsoon for this year (soybean is a kharif crop) may restrict sharp rise in prices. NCDEX June soybean shall find a support at 3740/3690 levels and Resistance 3980/4045 levels. Recommendation for this week: Buy NCDEX June Soybean between 3740-3760, SL-3688 and Target- 3980/4040.