MCX futures.....bullion.....Copper....Energy: .....Soybean: ,..... Refined Soybean Oil and palm Oil:

MCX futures.....bullion.....Copper....Energy: .....Soybean: ,..... Refined Soybean Oil and palm Oil: Bullion: MCX August gold futures traded slightly higher in the last week as short covering emerged after a sharp fall in the previous week. Political instability in Portugal raised concern that Europe’s debt crises will worsen, which also provided support to gold prices. Europe’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell by 0.3 percent in the first quarter of year-2013 from earlier fall of 0.2 percent in the last quarter of 2012. Some investors and end users started to buy gold after taking opportunity in recent price fall. Additionally, some investors decided to buy gold as hedge against inflation due to sharp rise in crude oil prices, which crossed $100 a barrel for the first time since September 2012. Further, depreciation of India’s rupee against the U.S. dollar was also provided support to prices at domestic bourses. However, prices came under pressure later on the back of favorable U.S. jobs data which indicated economic recovery and fueling speculation the Federal Reserve will scale back monetary stimulus. Lower investment demand for gold in SPDR Gold holding Trust, the biggest Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) fell to 964.69 tonnes as on July 03, 2013, down 0.50 per cent compared with 969.50 tonnes June 28, 2013. ¬¬¬¬¬Price Movement in the Last week: MCX August gold prices opened the week at Rs 26,073/10 grams. Initially traded slightly lower and found strong support at Rs 25,574/10 grams. Later, prices bounced back and touched a high of Rs 26,430/10 grams. Currently trading at Rs 25,800/10 grams (July 05, Friday at 6.10 PM) with a gain of Rs 131/10 grams (up 0.51%) as compared with previous week’s close. Outlook for this week: MCX August gold is expected to trade lower on account of positive US economy and Federal Reserve’s may reduce its stimulus package of $85 billion in monthly bond purchases. MCX August gold shall find supports at 25,460/24,830 levels and resistances at 26,430/26,650 levels. Spot gold has supports at 1200/1180 and resistances at 1260/1275 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell MCX August Gold between 26,400-26,430, SL 26,670 and Target- 25,470/24,830. Copper: MCX August Copper futures traded slightly higher in the last week on the back of favorable jobs data from U.S. which shows economy is improving and declining inventories at London Metal Exchange warehouses also provided support to prices. However, slowing economic growth in the largest metals user, China restricted sharp price rise. Price movement in the last week: MCX August Copper prices opened the week at Rs 405.80/kg. Initially traded higher after touching a high of Rs 426.20/kg, prices came under pressure and currently trading at Rs 415.10/kg (July 05, Friday at 6.20 PM) with a gain of Rs 8.50/kg as compared with previous week’s close. Outlook for this week: MCX August Copper is expected to trade with sentiments. On one hand, improvement in the U.S. economy is positive for base metals prices. On the other hand, factors like slowing economic growth in China and Freeport mine operating at full capacity after long time strike is negative for prices. MCX August Copper shall find a supports at 407/402 levels and resistances at 427/432 levels. Recommendation for this week: Buy MCX August Copper between 407-410, SL below 400, Target- 426/432. Energy: MCX July Crude oil futures traded higher (up about 7%) in the last week, WTI crude surged above $100 a barrel for the first time since September 2012 as a political unrest in Egypt, Egypt controls the Suez Canal and the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline. As per International Energy Agency (IEA), a combined 2.24 million barrels a day of oil was shipped from the Red Sea to Europe and North America in 2011 through Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline. Further, positive U.S. economic data will also increase demand prospects for crude oil in the world’s largest oil consuming country. According Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude oil inventories fell by 10.3 million barrels to 383.80 million barrels for the week ended June 28. According to BP Plc’s Statistical Review of World Energy, the U. S. accounted for 21 percent of global oil consumption last year, compared with 11 percent for China, the second biggest user. Price movement in the last week: MCX July crude oil prices opened the week at Rs 5757/bbl, initially traded mildly lower and found strong support of Rs 5712/bbl. Later, prices surged sharply and touched a high of Rs 6205/bbl. Currently trading at Rs 6195/bbl (July 05, Friday at 2.30 PM) with a gain of Rs 433/bbl (up 7.50%). Outlook for this week: MCX July crude oil is expected to trade with mixed sentiments. On one hand, lower crude oil inventory coupled with positive US economic data and unrest in Egypt is positive for crude oil prices. On the other hand, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will boost crude shipment by 2.3 per cent through late July as driving demand peaks in United States. MCX July crude oil shall find a support at 5920/5850 levels and resistance 6360/6500 levels. Soybean: NCDEX-October soybean futures traded lower in the beginning of the last week on the back of higher sowing acreage as good progress of monsoon across the country. Kharif Oilseeds sowing area covered to 60.69 lakh hectares against 11.82 lakh hectares last year as on June 28, 2013. Soybean in Madhya Pradesh planted on 29.74 lakh ha vs 2.75 lakh hectares and Maharashtra was planted on 8.26 lakh hectares vs 2.58 lakh hectares last year. However, prices recovered from low on account of short covering after continuous fall from last couple of days. According to Oil World, China, the world’s largest soybean consumer, may see its oilseed harvest drop to a “multi-year low” in the next season, spurring an increase in imports as stockpiles decline. Oilseed production may be 48 million metric tons in the 2013-14 season, about 2 million tons less than a year earlier. Soybean imports in June were probably a record 8 million tons, 43 percent more than in the same month last year, with most shipments arriving from Brazil, according to the report. Lower production “along with the comparatively low Chinese soybean stocks at the start of the new season will result in a pronounced increase of total Chinese oilseed imports. As per US department of agriculture, China’s soybean production forecast is 12 million tonnes for 2013-14. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs has increased the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) for soybean (black) by Rs 300 to Rs 2500/quintal and Soybean (Yellow) by Rs 320 to Rs 2560/quintal. Outlook for this week: NCDEX October soybean is expected to slightly higher on account of short covering and some fresh buying is expected at lower levels. Additionally, depreciation of INR against US dollar is also positive for prices at domestic bourses as soy meal exporters will get more return on soy meal exports and edible oil imports would be more costly. However, higher sowing acreage of soybean as favorable weather for crop may restrict from sharp rise in prices. NCDEX October soybean shall find a support at 3125/3050 levels and resistance 3230/3281 levels. Recommendation for this week: Buy NCDEX October Soybean between 3125-3135, SL 3049, target- 3230/3280. Refined Soybean Oil and palm Oil: NCDEX August refined soy oil futures traded higher in the last week on account short covering after sharp fall in previous week. Improved demand of edible oil in physical market ahead of Ramdan (Muslim fasting month) which will start from July 9, 2013 also added bullish market sentiments. Further, palm oil futures at Bursa Malaysia Derivative Exchange gained highest in the last week due to lower inventory of palm oil in the month of June due to higher export figures of Malaysian palm oil. Malaysia palm oil reserve fell 3.7% to 1.75 million tonnes, lowest since June 2012. Additionally, crude oil breached $100 a barrel for the first time sine September, 2012 which will boost bio-fuel demand from vegetable oil. According to Oil World, 5.6 million tonnes of palm oil was used for fuel in 2012. Palm oil exports increased ahead of Ramdan (Muslim fasting month) as consumption of edible oil will increase in this month. As per Intertek (a cargo surveyor) palm oil exports from Malaysia, the second largest producer of palm oil, increased 7 percent to 1.35 million tonnes in June from the last month. Government of Indonesia increased base prices for crude palm oil exports increased to $781/tonnes for the month of July from $764/tonnes in June. Palm oil export tax increased to 10.50% for the month of July from 9% in June. Outlook for this week: Edible oil (Ref soy oil and palm oil) is expected to trade higher on account of firm overseas market owing to improved demand of edible oil ahead of Ramdan (fasting month for Muslims). Depreciation of Indian rupee against US dollar is also positive for edible oil prices at domestic bourses as imports of edible oil would be more expensive. India imports edible oils more than 50% of it total requirements. NCDEX August Refined Soy Oil shall find a support at 676/670 levels and resistance 692/702 levels. MCX August Crude Palm Oil (CPO) shall find a support at 498/494 levels and resistance 518/522 levels. Recommendation for this week: Buy NCDEX August Refined Soybean Oil between 676-678, SL 669, target- 692/700. Buy MCX August Crude Palm Oil (CPO) between 498-500, SL 493, target- 517/521.