mcx futures gold.......copper.........crude.......soyabean..........

Gold: MCX August gold futures traded slightly lower in the beginning of the last week on back of rupee’s appreciation against the U.S. dollar. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised marginal standing facility rate to a record 10.25 percent from 8.25 percent. Marginal Standing Facility (MF) is the rate at which the scheduled banks could borrow funds from the RBI overnight, against the approved government securities. The RBI sold 25.32 billion rupee bonds on Thursday of planned 120 billion rupee bonds to drain cash from banking system to curb higher inflation and rupee weakness. Further, the government of India eased regulations in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to attract foreign funds flow into India’s capital markets. These reforms in India’s money market helped rupee to gain against the U.S. dollar last week. However, gold prices in domestic bourses recovered due to overseas stability in overseas bullion market. Gold in the international market traded slightly higher as the U.S. housing data reported worse than expectation. Added, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke testimony indicated delay in scaling back bond purchases also helped bullion to show some gains. Fed in its’ semi annual policy meet said the current pace of bond purchases could be maintained till inflation increases to target rate 2.0 percent, unemployment rate reduces to 6.5 percent and improvement in financial conditions. Gold prices retreated when U.S. economic indictors like a surprise fall in U.S. initial jobless claims and better than expected manufacturing growth in Philadelphia region reversed early gains. Further, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke comments that the central bank’s asset purchases could be reduced more quickly or expanded depends on economic conditions would also pressurize bullion whenever U.S. economic indicators suggest a recovery. ¬¬¬¬¬Price Movement in the Last week: MCX August gold prices opened the week at Rs 26,794/10 grams. Initially traded lower and found strong support at Rs 26,240/10 grams. Later, prices bounced back from and touched a high of Rs 26,925/10 grams. Currently trading at Rs 26,650/10 grams (July 19, Friday at 5.30 PM) with a nominal gain of Rs 49/10 grams. Outlook for this week: MCX August gold is expected to trade lower on account of lower investment demand for gold Exchange Trade Fund. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the World's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined to 935.17 tonnes as on July 18, 2013, down 0.42% as compared to 939.07 tonnes on July 15, 2013. MCX August gold shall find supports at 26,240/25,760 levels and resistances at 27,100/27,600 levels. Spot gold has supports at 1265/1235 and resistances at 1322/1360 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell MCX August Gold between 27,000-27,100, SL 25,610 and Target- 26,240/25,800. Copper: MCX August Copper futures traded slightly lower in the last week owing to world’s third largest metals consuming country Germany’s investor sentiment dropped in July after China posted worse than expected economic growth rate. U.S. housing starts and building permits suggest pace of residential construction growth is slowed to least since August, as 40 percent of total global copper is used in building construction. But other U.S. economic indicators suggested growing demand concerns for base metals as U.S. industrial production growth recovered and job market improved, these factors restricted sharp price fall of metals. Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded more than forecast in July. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index increased to 19.8, the highest level since March 2011. Price movement in the last week: MCX August Copper prices opened the week at Rs 420.20/kg. After making a high of Rs 422.30/Kg, prices fell sharply and touched a low of Rs 411.10/Kg and currently trading at Rs 416.25/kg (July 19, Friday at 5.40 PM) with a loss of Rs 4/kg as compared with previous week’s close. Outlook for this week: MCX August Copper is expected to trade lower on account of slow economic growth rate in China, world largest importer and consumer. MCX August Copper shall find a supports at 405/398 levels and resistances at 422/427 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell MCX August Copper between 420-422, SL 428, Target- 405/398. Crude: MCX August crude oil futures traded slightly lower in the early part of the last week on rupee appreciation. However, crude oil prices recovered sharply from early sell-off and breached 15 month price high on the back of decline in U.S. jobless claims and a fall in U.S. oil inventories. Jobless claims in U.S. dropped by 24,000 to 334,000 in the week ended July 13, the fewest since early May. Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded more than forecast in July, the latest sign of an improving outlook for the industry after a slowdown earlier this year. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. oil inventories decreased 6.9 million barrels to 367.0 million barrels and oil imports gained by 180,000 barrels last week, indicating demand from the world’s largest oil consumer, U.S. Price movement in the last week: MCX August crude oil prices opened the week at Rs 6349/bbl, initially traded lower and found strong support of Rs 6229/bbl. Later, prices bounced back sharply and touched a high of Rs 6482/bbl., currently trading at Rs 6468/bbl (July 19, Friday at 5.40 PM) with a gain of Rs 128/bbl, i.e. up by 2%. Outlook for this week: MCX August crude oil is expected to trade higher on the back of lower crude oil inventory and positive U.S. economic data improved demand concerns in the world’s largest oil consuming country. MCX August crude oil shall find a support at 6340/6168 levels and resistance 6570/6660 levels. Recommendation for this week: Buy MCX August Crude between 6340-6350, SL 6165, Target- 6570/6660. Soybean: NCDEX-October soybean futures traded lower in the last week owing to higher sowing acreage amid favorable weather for crop which will translate into higher output for this season. According to Ministry of Agriculture (GOI), Kharif oilseeds sowing area covered to 149.82 lakh hectares (LH) till July 18, 2013 against 108.81 lakh ha last year during the same period. Kharif oilseed includes soybean (109.99 LH), groundnut (30.33 LH), Sesamum (6.33 LH), Sunflower (1.26 LH), Niger Seed (0.42 LH) and Castor Seed (1.48 LH). Area covered under soybean throughout India is 109.99 lakh hectares till July 18, 2013 as compared to 86.20 lakh hectare last year, i.e. up by 23.79 lakh ha or 28%). Higher coverage is due to more area covered in state like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Karnataka compare to last year. Area covered under kharif oilseeds in Madhya Pradesh was 62.24 lakh ha compared to 49.06 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean in Madhya Pradesh was 58.80 lakh ha till July 18,2013 compared to 47.17 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under oilseeds in Maharashtra was 36.27 lakh ha till July 18, 2013 compared to 27.99 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean was 34.05 lakh ha compared to 26.47 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Due to good rainfall and distribution in the oilseeds growing region helps the quick covering of soybean. Area covered under oilseeds in Rajasthan was 16.24 lakh ha till July 18, 2013 compared to 12.09 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean was 10.06 lakh ha compared to 7.68 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under oilseeds in Karnataka was 6.01 lakh ha till July 18, 2013 compared to 2.86 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. Area covered under soybean was 2.38 lakh ha compared to 1.52 lakh ha recorded during corresponding period of last year. According to USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report, net export sales for soybeans came at 110,600 tonnes for the current marketing year and 591,700 for the next marketing year for a total of 702,300. New crop sales were mainly "unknown" at 257,600 and China at 240,500 tonnes. Sales were very close to trade expectations and had little impact. Cumulative soybean sales for the new crop season stand at 33.7% of the USDA forecast for the marketing year versus a 5 year average of 23.0%. Sales of 439,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. With the huge inversion of old crop to new crop; buyers have been more active at booking new crop needs. Meal sales came in at 41,600 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 38,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 79,600. Cumulative meal old crop sales stand at 99.9% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 88.7% for this time of the year. Oil sales came in at 10,600 metric tonnes, all for old crop. Cumulative sales stand at 89.7% of the USDA forecast for 2012/2013 season versus a 5 year average of 83.8%. Sales of 9,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Outlook for this week: NCDEX October soybean is expected to trade lower on the back of higher sowing acreage of soybean amid favorable weather for crop. NCDEX October soybean shall find a support at 3085/3050 levels and resistance 3190/3235 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell NCDEX October Soybean between 3180-3190, SL 3240, target- 3085/3050.