mcx prices trand......gold.............copper........crude......refined soyabean oil and crude palm oil.....

Gold: Gold prices opened the week under positive tone and traded higher in early few sessions on an expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve would maintain monetary stimulus when U.S. existing home sales and regional manufacturing index posted worse than expected numbers last week. However, gold retreated in the last couple of sessions as a jump in U.S. durable goods orders and a rise in U.S. new home sales increased prospects that Fed may scale back monetary stimulus. A survey by Bloomberg economists showed that U.S. monthly bond purchases will be reduced to $65 billion in September from existing $85 billion. ¬¬¬¬¬Price Movement in the Last week: MCX August gold prices opened the week at Rs 26,786/10 grams, traded higher and found good resistance at Rs 27,716/10 grams and currently trading at Rs 27,325/10 grams (July 26, Friday at 5.55 PM) with a gain of Rs 630/10 grams. Outlook for this week: MCX October gold prices are expected to be volatile but under a slight positive tone on a speculation whether Federal Reserve will continue its’ economic stimulus? The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a private employment report releases are important for direction of gold before commencement of U.S. Federal Open Market Committee policy meet on July 31. MCX October gold shall find supports at 26,785/26,415 levels and resistances at 28,120/28,350 levels. International Spot gold has supports at 1300/1268 and resistances at 1375/1400 levels. Recommendation for this week: Buy MCX October Gold between 26,785-27,020, SL 26,400 and Target- 28,120/28,300. Copper: MCX August Copper futures traded slightly lower in the last week as concerns that demand from China, the largest user, will decline as the country planned to eliminate obsolete production capacity. China’s industry ministry ordered more than 1,400 companies in 19 industries, including aluminum and copper, to cut production capacity this year. As per a survey, the plan will entail shutting down 654,400 tons of copper capacity and 260,000 tons for aluminum as part of the initial goal. According to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the copper surplus may rise to 500,000 tons in 2015 from 257,000 tons this year, which is also supported a fall in base metals. China’s manufacturing shrank in July for the first time in 10 months said a preliminary purchasing manager’s report by Markit Economics. Price movement in the last week: MCX August Copper prices opened the week at Rs 415.50/kg, after making a high of Rs 423.35/Kg, prices fell from high and touched a low of Rs 410.35/Kg and currently trading at Rs 411/kg (July 26, Friday at 6.00 PM) with a loss of Rs 3.75/kg as compared with previous week’s close. Outlook for this week: MCX August Copper is expected to trade lower on account of slow economic growth rate in China, world largest importer and consumer. MCX August Copper shall find a supports at 405/398 levels and resistances at 422/427 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell MCX August Copper between 420-422, SL 428, Target- 405/398. Crude: MCX August crude oil futures traded lower in the last week on account of higher U.S. oil production. According to Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude output surged to a 22-year high. U.S. oil production increased to 7.56 million barrels a day last week ended July 19, the most since December 1990. U.S. petroleum demand fell 1 percent to 18.7 million barrels a day in June from a year earlier, the lowest level for the month since 1997, the American Petroleum Institute said on July 18. Rising crude oil output in the U.S. and speculation that China’s plans to cut excess manufacturing capacity will curb fuel demand. Price movement in the last week: MCX August crude oil prices opened the week at Rs 6425/bbl, initially traded mildly higher and found strong resistance of Rs 6487/bbl. Later, prices fell sharply and touched a low of Rs 6174/bbl., currently trading at Rs 6205/bbl (July 26, Friday at 6.00 PM) with a gain of Rs 228/bbl, i.e. down by 3.55%. Outlook for this week: MCX August crude oil is expected to trade lower on the back of higher U.S. crude oil output coupled with lower demand for fuel from China as China’s plans to cut excess manufacturing capacity, world’s second largest oil consuming country. MCX August crude oil shall find a support at 6080/5970 levels and resistance 6300/6425 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell MCX August Crude between 6280-6300, SL 6430, target- 6080/5980. Refined Soybean Oil and Crude Palm Oil: NCDEX August refined soy oil traded lower in the last week owing to bumper soybean production estimates and higher production & inventory of palm oil estimates. Lower exports figures of Malaysian palm oil in first 25 days of July also added bearish market sentiments. As per SGS (a cargo surveyor), Exports from Malaysia, the largest producer after Indonesia, fell 6 percent in the first 25 days of July from 1,128,408 tons in the same period in June. Palm Oil futures tumbled to the lowest level in more than 3 years as global supplies of the world’s most consumed cooking oil climb the most since 1999 as demand expands at the lowest pace in more than a decade. As per U.S. department of Agriculture, Palm production, accounting for 35 percent of cooking oil supply, will expand 5 percent to 58.1 million tons in 2013-2014. Crude palm oil (CPO) output is expected to increase in August due to the peak production period while a bumper soybean crop is expected for the 2013-2014 season in the United States in September. As per USDA, world stockpiles of palm are set to surge 21 percent to a record 9.5 million tons by the end of 2013-2014 as demand expands 4.4 percent, the least in 12 years. Soybean oil, a competing product, slumped to the lowest since 2010 as supplies rise to a record for a fifth year. Global production of soybean oil may total 44.03 million tons in 2013-14, up from 42.27 million tons a year earlier. Sunflower oil output may be 14.68 million tons, up from 13.58 million tons in the previous season. Total world vegetable oil consumption may rise to 158.7 million tons, up 3.1 percent from a year earlier, Oil World said. Inventories at the end of the 2013-14 season may increase 2.6 percent from a year earlier to 21.4 million tons. As per USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report, net weekly export sales came in at 128,300 tonnes for the current marketing year and 665,200 for the next marketing year for a total of 793,500. As of July 18th, cumulative sales stand at 35.5% of the USDA forecast for the 2013/2014 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 24.5%. Sales of 435,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net oil sales came in at 3,300 tonnes for the current marketing year and cumulative sales stand at 90% of the USDA forecast for the 2012/2013 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 85%. Sales of 9,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Outlook for this week: NCDEX August refined soybean oil is expected to trade lower on account of weak overseas market as higher global production estimates of oilseeds and palm oil. NCDEX August refined soybean oil shall find a support at 628/610 levels and resistance 660/667 levels. MCX August crude palm oil (CPO) shall find a support at 475/467 levels and resistance 495/503 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell NCDEX August refined soybean oil between 656-660, SL 668, target- 628/612. Sell MCX August crude palm oil (CPO) between 491-495, SL 505, target- 475/468.