mcx futures bullion.......copper.....energy......soyabean......refined soyabean oil and palm oil....

Bullion: MCX August gold futures traded higher in the last week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Wednesday that the “U.S. economy needs accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future” in minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet. Earlier, bullion slumped in the last quarter when Bernanke said Fed may reduce its $85 billion monthly bond purchases this year. Bernanke comments, to continue monetary stimulus, are contrary with the market expectations, so gold prices were up in the last week. The U.S. dollar index recovered from early sell-off as market concerns are about to reduction in U.S. bond-purchases when Japan and European Union are confirmed to continue economic stimulus. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed its 2013 and 2014 economic growth forecasts for the U.S. on Tuesday, which also indicated that Fed couldn’t scale back monetary stimulus. ¬¬¬¬¬Price Movement in the Last week: MCX August gold prices opened the week at Rs 25,988/10 grams. Initially traded mildly lower and found strong support at Rs 25,887/10 grams. Later, prices surged sharply and touched a high of Rs 26,858/10 grams. Currently trading at Rs 26,500/10 grams (July 12, Friday at 5.15 PM) with a gain of Rs 466/10 grams (up 1.77%) as compared with previous week’s close. Outlook for this week: MCX August gold is expected to trade slightly higher as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernake’s statement that the U.S. still needs stimulus package which will increase demand for gold hedge against inflation. MCX August gold shall find supports at 25,850/25,570 levels and resistances at 27,000/27,550 levels. Spot gold has supports at 1235/1208 and resistances at 1335/1365 levels. Recommendation for this week: Buy MCX August Gold between 25,850-25,900, SL 25,550 and Target- 27,000/27,500. Copper: MCX August Copper futures traded slightly lower in the beginning of the last week on concern that subdued inflation and slowing economic growth in the world’s largest metals consuming country, China indicate weaker demand. Additionally, the U.K.’s manufacturing unexpectedly shrunk in the previous month and European industrial production dropped in June. However, copper prices surged sharply on Thursday when the copper imports by China climbed to the highest since September. Shipments of refined metals, alloy and products increased 5.9 percent to 379,951 metric tons in June from May. Further, Italian industrial output rose and French industrial production declined less than expectation have also provided support to prices. Price movement in the last week: MCX August Copper prices opened the week at Rs 418.60/kg. Initially traded lower and found strong support of Rs 405/kg. Later prices bounced back from low and touched a high of Rs 425.25/Kg and currently trading at Rs 419.50/kg (July 12, Friday at 5.15 PM) with a gain of Rs 3.50/kg as compared with previous week’s close. Outlook for this week: MCX August Copper is expected to trade slightly higher on hopes to continue monetary stimulus in U.S. after Fed Chairman Bernanke statements in minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet is positive for base metal prices. MCX August Copper shall find a supports at 410/404 levels and resistances at 432/440 levels. Recommendation for this week: Buy MCX August Copper between 410-412, SL 402, Target- 432/440. Energy: In the last week, MCX July Crude oil futures ended in red on account of profit taking after a sharp rise in the previous week. U.S. jobless claims rose to the highest level in two months and the International Energy Agency (IEA) said global oil supply will exceed demand next year also added bearish market sentiments. According to U.S. Labor Department, first-time claims for unemployment benefits climbed by 16,000 last week to 360,000. Oil production in non-OPEC countries will increase at the fastest pace in 20 years next year, the International Energy Agency said in its first monthly forecasts for 2014. OPEC, which pumps about 40 percent of the world’s crude, will boost exports by the most this year as summer demand for motor fuels in the Northern Hemisphere peaks, according to oil movements. The 12-member group will ship 24.32 million barrels a day in the four weeks ending July 27, up 630,000 barrels from 23.69 million in the period to June 29, the tanker tracker in Halifax, England. According to IEA, global oil consumption will expand by 1.2 million barrel per day in 2014, up from a forecast 930,000 a day this year (2013). Supplies from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase by 1.3 million barrels a day amid booming output in North America, reducing the need for shipments from the producer group, the Paris-based energy adviser said in its monthly report. Price movement in the last week: MCX July crude oil prices opened the week at Rs 6389/bbl, initially traded lower and found strong support of Rs 6156/bbl. Later, prices bounced back and touched a high of Rs 6419/bbl., currently trading at Rs 6323/bbl (July 12, Friday at 5.15 PM) with a loss of Rs 45/bbl. Outlook for this week: MCX July crude oil is expected to trade slightly lower on the back of oil production in non-OPEC countries will increase at the fastest pace in 20 years next year. Further, there are also concerns about lower demand as U.S. small businesses cooled in June after reaching a one-year high the prior month. Egypt’s interim government seeks quick election and laid out an accelerated six-month timeline. MCX July crude oil shall find a support at 6155/6000 levels and resistance 6350/6580 levels . Soybean: NCDEX-October soybean futures traded slightly higher in the beginning of the last week on the back of firm overseas market and improved demand of domestic soy meal exports. However, soybean prices came under pressure from higher levels in the later part of the week owing to higher sowing acreage amid favorable weather for crop which will translate into higher output for this season. According to Soybean Processors Association (SOPA), area under soybean in Madhya Pradesh, is likely to be more than 61 lakh hectares as compared to 58.5 lakh hectare last year. Soybean sowing in second largest producer Maharashtra has been completed on 30.33 lakh hectares as on July 08, 2013. As per Ministry of Agriculture (GOI), Kharif oilseeds sowing area covered to 110.27 lakh hectares till July 05, 2013 against 26.52 lakh ha last year during the same period. Soybean planting will exceed last year’s 10.9 million hectares as sowing gains in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra states, the biggest growing states in India. Timely sowing amid favorable weather will increase the yields. The monsoon rainfall was 32 percent more in June than a 50- year average considered normal for the month and the highest since 2001, according to the India Meteorological Department. According to USDA’s Monthly Supply & Demand Report, global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 492.92 million tons, up 2.32 million tons from last month and 22.88 million tons from last year. Global soybean production is projected at 285.89 million tons, up 0.73 million tonnes from last month and up 17.87 million tonnes from last year. U.S. soybean production is projected at 93.08 million tons, up from 92.26 million tons in the last month and 82.05 million tonnes from last year. Brazil soybean production is projected at 85 million tons, unchanged from 85 million tons in the last month and up from 82 million tonnes from last year. Argentina soybean production is projected at 53.5 million tons, down from 54.50 million tons in the last month and up from 50.2 million tonnes from last year. China soybean production is projected at 12.5 million tons, up from 12 million tons in the last month and down from 12.8 million tonnes from last year. India soybean production is projected at 12 million tons, unchanged from 12 million tons in the last month and up from 11.5 million tonnes from last year. Global soybean ending stocks is projected at 74.12 million tons, up from 73.60 million tonnes in the last month and up 61.52 million tonnes from last year. As per USDA’s Net weekly export sales, export sales for soybeans showed a cancelation of 70,900 tonnes for the current marketing year and 410,800 tonnes of sales for the next marketing year for a total of 339,900. As of July 4th, cumulative sales stand at 102% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 100%. Net meal sales came in at 33,700 tonnes for the current marketing year and 10,900 for the next marketing year for a total of 44,600. Cumulative sales stand at 101% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 87%. Outlook for this week: NCDEX October soybean is expected to trade lower on the back of higher sowing acreage of soybean amid favorable weather for crop. NCDEX October soybean shall find a support at 3125/3050 levels and resistance 3235/3280 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell NCDEX August Soybean between 3225-3235, SL 3282, target- 3125/3050 Refined Soybean Oil and palm Oil: NCDEX August refined soy oil futures traded slightly lower in the last week on account of profit taking after sharp rise in previous week. Further, lower exports figures of Malaysian palm oil in first 10 days of July also added bearish market sentiments. As per Intertek (a cargo surveyor) palm oil exports from Malaysia, the second largest producer of palm oil, fell about 16% percent to 352,375 tonnes during July 1-10 compared with 419,035 tonnes in the last month during the same period. According to USDA’s Monthly Supply & Demand Report, global soybean oil production is projected at 44.62 million tons, up from 44.56 million tons in the last month and 42.96 million tonnes from last year. China soybean oil production is projected at 12.12 million tons, up from 12.07 million tons in the last month and 11.57 million tonnes from last year. United States soybean oil production is projected at 8.84 million tons, unchanged from 8.84 million tons in the last month and down from 8.89 million tonnes from last year. Argentina soybean oil production is projected at 7.25 million tons, unchanged from 7.25 million tons in the last month and up from 6.57 million tonnes from last year. Brazil soybean oil production is projected at 7.1 million tons, unchanged from 7.1 million tons in the last month and down from 6.82 million tonnes from last year. European Union soybean oil production is projected at 2.22 million tons, up from 2.21 million tons in the last month and down from 2.23 million tonnes from last year. India soybean oil production is projected at 1.78 million tons, unchanged from 1.78 million tons in the last month and up from 1.77 million tonnes from last year. Global soybean oil ending stocks is projected at 3.45 million tons, up from 3.31 million tons in the last month and down 3.50 million tons from last year. Palm Oil: Palm Oil prices fell sharply on Friday after the U.S. government increased estimates for the U.S. Soybean output and stockpiles before the next harvest, boosting the outlook for global oilseed supplies. Palm oil and soybean oil are substitutes in food and fuel uses. According to USDA’s Monthly Supply & Demand Report, global palm oil production is projected at 58.08 million tons, unchanged from 58.08 million tons in the last month and up from 55.29 million tonnes in the last year. Indonesia palm oil production is projected at 31 million tons, unchanged from 31 million tons in the last month and up from 28.5 million tonnes in the last year. Malaysia palm oil production is projected at 19 million tons, unchanged from 19 million tons in the last month and unchanged from 19 million tonnes in the last year. Thailand palm oil production is projected at 2.1 million tons, unchanged from 2.1 million tons in the last month and up from 2 million tonnes in the last year. India palm oil imports is projected at 9 million tons, unchanged from 9 million tons in the last month and up from 8.5 million tonnes in the last year. India palm oil Consumption is projected at 9.14 million tons, unchanged from 9.14 million tons in the last month and up from 8.43 million tonnes in the last year. Global palm oil ending stocks is projected at 9.55 million tons, unchanged from 9.55 million tonnes in the last month and up from 7.90 million tonnes in the last year. Outlook for this week: Edible oil (Ref soy oil and palm oil) is expected to trade lower on account of bearish USDA’s monthly and supply reports, which shows higher global production estimates and higher ending stocks as compared to last year. August Refined Soy Oil shall find a support at 670/661 levels and resistance 687/693 levels. MCX August Crude Palm Oil (CPO) shall find a support at 494/485 levels and resistance 512/521 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell NCDEX August Refined Soybean Oil between 683-687, SL 694, target- 670/662. Sell MCX August Crude Palm Oil (CPO) between 508-512, SL 522, target- 494/485.