MCX futures gold......copper.....energy........soyabean

Bullion: MCX August gold futures fell sharply, about 7.50 percent in the last week. COMEX gold plunged to a 34-month low and silver fell to the lowest since August 2010 after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said to reduce stimulus package of $85 billion in monthly bond purchases by this year end and halt bond buying program in mid 2014. Positive US economic data also added selling pressure on bullion. U.S. new home sales in May and consumer confidence in June readings climbed to five year high, exceeding all median forecasts. Richmond manufacturing index and durable goods orders also showed optimism in the U.S. economy, which were also negative for bullion. Further, consumer spending in the U.S. in May rose 0.3 percent after a 0.3 percent decline in the prior month and incomes raised 0.5 percent Vs median estimate 0.2 percent. U.S. Jobless claims decreased to 346,000 in the week ended June 22 from the prior week’s 355,000. Additionally, India’s rupee appreciation against the U.S. dollar on Thursday also supported a fall in domestic bourses as current account deficit in India narrowed than the early estimates. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said that deficit was $18.1 billion in January-March quarter, compared with a revised $31.9 billion in the previous quarter. Further, investment demand for gold declined as holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) fell to 969.5 tonnes as on June 27, 2013, down 1.65 per cent compared with 985.73 tonnes June 24, 2013. ¬¬¬¬¬Price Movement in the Last week: MCX August gold prices opened the week at Rs 27,000/10 grams and fell sharply, touched a low of Rs 24,941/10 grams. Currently trading at Rs 25,070/10 grams (June 28, Friday at 5.20 PM) with a huge loss of Rs 1950/10 grams (down 7.25%) as compared with previous week’s close. Outlook for this week: MCX August gold is expected to trade lower on account of positive US economic US economy and Federal Reserve’s chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s comment about the reducing its stimulus package of $85 billion in monthly bond purchases. MCX August gold shall find supports at 24,180/23,680 levels and resistances at 25,300/25,800 levels. Spot gold has supports at 1155/1125 and resistances at 1245/1270 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell MCX August Gold between 25,250-25,300, SL above 25,800 and Target- 24,180/23,700. Copper: MCX June Copper futures traded slightly lower in the last week as U.S. economy in the first quarter grew less than expectation and an increase LME warehouses inventories were also pressured prices. Base metals plunged on concerns of lower demand prospects from the largest metals consuming country, China when People’s Bank of China asked banks to control their credit expansion. However, copper prices recovered sharply from early sell off after the central bank said it provided liquidity support to financial institutions to stabilize market expectations in China. Indian rupee appreciated in the second half of the last week, which brought bearish market sentiments for base metals in domestic bourses. Price movement in the last week: MCX August Copper prices opened the week at Rs 411.05/kg and initially traded slightly higher and touched a high of Rs 414.60/kg. Later prices came under pressure and touched a low of Rs 397.95/kg. Currently trading at Rs 406.55/kg (June 28, Friday at 5.30 PM) with a loss of Rs 6.10/kg as compared with previous week’s close. Outlook for this week: MCX August Copper is expected to trade slightly lower owing to increasing inventories at LME warehouse as lower demand from China, is largest consumer of copper. MCX August Copper shall find a supports at 391/380 levels and resistances at 415/422 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell MCX August Copper between 412-415, SL above 422 and Target- 391/382. Energy: MCX July Crude oil futures traded higher in the last week on the back of positive US economic data coupled with China’s central bank comments about the liquidity support to the financial institutions. U.S. economic data was also helpful to bring momentum in crude oil. U.S. pending (previously owned) home sales jumped 6.7 in May, the highest since December 2006 which is indicating progress in the industry. The U.S.A. is the world’s largest and China is a second largest oil consuming countries. So, oil prices rallied with the demand concerns from the largest consuming countries. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said oil inventories slightly increased by 18 thousand barrels against estimated 1.7 million barrel draw down and inventories of gasoline and distillate considerably increased in the previous week. But market concerns are about the U.S. summer driving season which will bring higher demand for oil due to economic recovery this year. Price movement in the last week: MCX July crude oil prices opened the week at Rs 5608/bbl, initially traded mildly lower and found strong support of Rs 5570/bbl. Later, prices surged sharply, touched a high of Rs 5867/bbl and currently trading at Rs 5793/bbl (June 28, Friday at 5.30 PM) with a gain of Rs 180/bbl (up 3.21%). Outlook for this week: MCX July crude oil is expected to higher on account of positive US economic data as recovery of US economy after long recession. MCX July crude oil shall find a support at 5700/5570 levels and resistance 5935/6050 levels. Soybean: NCDEX-July soybean futures traded lower in the last week on the back of higher sowing acreage due to good progress of monsoon across the country. According to Rajesh Agrawal, co-coordinator and spokesman, Soybean Processors Association of India “Sowing progress is really good this year and all India’s soybean sowing may end by July 5, 2013”. Sowing acreage under kharif oilseeds may increase by 5-7% this year as compared to last year due to better returns on soybean as compared to other crops. Further, withdrawal of Special Margin on Soybean is also added bearish market sentiments. As per a circular by NCDEX dated June 26, 2013 the special margin of 10% (in cash) on the Long Side on Soybean July 2013 expiry contracts will be withdrawn with effect from beginning of day Thursday, June 27, 2013. As per the Ministry of Agriculture, kharif oilseeds sowing area is 8.13 lakh hectare vs normal sowing area 3.37 lakh as on June 20, 2013. Soybean was planted on 1.32 lakh hectares against 0.16 lakh hectares last year. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 million tonnes. According to Oil World, global production forecast of 10 major oilseeds to increase to 484.50 million tonnes this year from 463.50 million tonnes last year owing to higher sowing acreage amid favorable weather for crop in major growing regions. USDA’s weekly export sales showed signs of slower growth for soybeans, meal and oil. Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 14,500 tonnes for the current marketing year, down from 53,000 tonnes the week prior and new crop sales totaled 451,100 tonnes which took the report total to 465,600. The USDA reported that US private exporters sold 172,500 tonnes of soybeans to an unknown destination for the 2013/14 marketing year. As of June 20th, cumulative sales stand at 101% of the USDA forecast versus a 5 year average of 99%. Net meal sales came in at 9,200 tonnes for the current marketing year and 100 tonnes for the next marketing year for a total of 9,300. Cumulative meal sales stand at 99% of the USDA forecast versus a 5 year average of 86%. Sales of 7,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net oil sales came in at 2,900 tonnes for the current marketing year and cumulative sales stand at 89% of the USDA forecast versus a 5 year average of 81%. Sales of 8,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. According to Brookfield Agricultural Group Brazil, the world’s largest soybean exporter will probably harvest a bigger crop next season as prices are still providing incentives for farmers to expand planted area. Soybean prices climbed 7.9 percent last month on limited U.S. supplies. Brazil will produce a record 85,000 metric tons of soybeans in the 2013-14 season that starts there in October, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates. That compares with 82,000 tonnes in the same period a year earlier. Outlook for this week: NCDEX July soybean is expected to trade lower on account of higher sowing acreage as favorable weather for soybean crop. Additionally, appreciation of INR against US dollar is also negative for prices at domestic bourses as soy meal exporters will get less return on soy meal exports and edible oil imports would be cheaper. NCDEX July soybean shall find a support at 3530/3490 levels and resistance 3720/3780 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell NCDEX July Soybean between 3700-3720, SL 3785, target- 3530/3495.