Outlook futures market....bhllion....Copper....Energy:.....Soybean.......

Bullion: Spot gold in the international market fell sharply about 7 percent in the last week and breached its’ two and an half year low as bullion lost its appeal as on alternative investment when the U.S. dollar gained after the Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben S. Bernanke said that the central bank may curb its stimulus of $85 billion in monthly bond purchases by this year end and halt bond buying program in mid 2014 as long as the U.S. economy performs in line with the central bank’s projection. Spot gold on Thursday slipped below $1300/ounce for the first time since September 2010. Further, Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) fell to the lowest in almost three years. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded product backed by bullion, fell to 995.35 tonnes as on June 20, 2013, down 22.34 per cent compared with 1281.22 tonnes June 20, 2012. However, MCX August Gold futures fell about 4 percent only in the last week as India’s rupee dropped against the U.S. dollar, which restricted sharp fall of gold in domestic bourses. India’s rupee broke recent low and reached near to psychological level at 60 per a dollar. ¬¬¬¬¬Price Movement in the Last week: MCX August gold prices opened the week at Rs 27,899/10 grams, initially traded slightly higher and found strong resistant at Rs 28,119/10 grams. Later, prices fell sharply from high and touched a low of Rs 26,727/10 grams. Currently trading at Rs 26,774/10 grams (June 21, Friday at 4.00 PM) with a huge loss of Rs 1105/10 grams as compared with previous week’s close. Outlook for this week: MCX August gold is expected to trade lower on account of sharp decline in investment demand in gold after Federal Reserve’s chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s comment about the reducing its stimulus package of $85 billion in monthly bond purchases. MCX August gold shall find supports at 26,200/25,750 levels and resistances at 27,450/27,800 levels. Spot gold has supports at 1240/1180 and resistances at 1335/1360 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell MCX August Gold between 27,400-27,450, SL above 27,800 and Target- 26,200/25,800. Copper: MCX June Copper futures traded slightly lower in the last week as China’s manufacturing contracted more than expectation and euro-area manufacturing and services sectors shrink less than expectation in this month said HSBC holdings & Markit Economics. But manufacturing in U.S.’s Philadelphia region in June grew at the fastest pace in two years. Global manufacturing numbers indicate possibility of lower demand for base metals, by which base metals may continue in down trend. Price movement in the last week: MCX June Copper prices opened the week at Rs 408.25/kg and initially traded slightly higher and touched a high of Rs 412.70/kg. Later prices came under pressure and touched a low of Rs 401.85/kg. Currently trading at Rs 402.85/kg (June 21, Friday at 4.00 PM) with a loss of Rs 5.10/kg as compared with previous week’s close. Outlook for this week: MCX June Copper is expected to trade lower due to weak global market sentiments and unfavorable manufacturing data from China, is largest consumer of copper. Further, rise in dollar index against basket of 6 major currencies also negative for prices. MCX June Copper shall find a supports at 392/382 levels and resistances at 413/421.50 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell MCX June Copper between 410-413, SL 422 and Target- 392/384. Energy: MCX July Crude oil futures traded slightly higher in the beginning of the last week as geo-political tensions in the Middle East escalate supply concerns. U.S. President Barack Obama was said to authorize arming Syrian rebels groups against the forces of Syrian President usage of Chemical weapon in civil war. Prices came under pressure in mid of the last after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a 0.3 million barrel raise in crude inventory against the survey estimated 0.5 million barrel draw down. Further, U.S. jobless claims reported higher than the estimation and the U.S. leading indictors, a gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.1 percent, which is lower than the estimation, also reduced demand prospects from the world’s largest oil consuming country. Price movement in the last week: MCX July crude oil prices opened the week at Rs 5690/bbl, initially traded higher and found strong resistant of Rs 5854/bbl. Later, prices came under pressure and currently trading at Rs 5684/bbl (June 21, Friday at 4.00 PM) with a nominal loss of Rs 8/bbl. Outlook for this week: MCX July crude oil is expected to trade slightly lower on expectation of slow global economic growth owing to unfavorable manufacturing data from China and higher unemployment in US, which may reduce the crude oil demand. MCX July crude oil shall find a support at 5570/5480 levels and resistance 5854/5925 levels Soybean: NCDEX July soybean futures traded slightly higher in the beginning of last week on account of sharp fall in Indian rupee against US dollar as soy meal exporter will get good return on soy meal exports. Indian rupee hit all time lows of 60 levels against a US dollar. However, in the later part of the last week, prices came under pressure on account of profit taking at higher levels. Additionally, soybean plantation started in major growing areas of soybean amid favorable weather also added bearish market sentiments. Sowing acreage under oilseeds may increase by 5-7% this year as compared to last year due to better returns on soybean as compared to other crops. As per the Ministry of Agriculture, oilseeds sowing are 1.57 lakh hectares against 1.56 lakh hectares last year. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 million tonnes. As per USDA’s net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at a sluggish 52,600 tonnes for the current marketing year and 108,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 161,100. For 3 consecutive weeks, export sales have failed to breach 100,000 tonnes. As of June 13th, cumulative sales stand at 101% of the USDA forecast versus a 5 year average of 98.5%. Net meal sales came in at 26,600 tonnes for the current marketing year; down sharply from week ago levels which maybe finally signaling a slowdown in demand. Cumulative meal sales stand at 98.9% of the USDA forecast for the current marketing year versus a 5 year average of 84.8%. Net oil sales came in at a measly 700 tonnes for the current marketing year and no sales were reported for the next market year. Cumulative oil sales stand at 88.5% of the USDA versus a 5 year average of 79%. Sales of 7,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Outlook for this week: NCDEX July soybean is expected to trade lower on account of weak overseas market as favorable weather in US for soybean crop. Lower demand from China due to weaker Chinese economic activity is raising fears for a marked slow down in oilseeds import demand this year which is negative for prices. NCDEX July soybean shall find a support at 3800/3730 levels and resistance 3974/4030 levels. Recommendation for this week: Sell NCDEX July Soybean between 3960-3974, SL 4035, target- 3800/3730.