Maize arrivals keep prices down- Bihar

Maize arrivals keep prices down; Bihar expected to produce a good crop; US corn prices move lower; DDGS prices follow suit and are feasible

Maize supplies in India are not constrained, though quality may be an issue in some areas. Karnataka arrivals continue to arrive, specially out of Davangere, Hosur, Rannibannur and prices are ranging between Rs.11500-11800/MT depending on the quality. The expectations are that the maize arrivals in Karnataka are likely to continue until Mar and the maize arrivals in Bihar are likely to start early. Overall price of maize in India averaged Rs.12870/MT, down 0.22% against last week and lower than last year by 2.30%. The poultry sector continues to be affected, due to lower demand, which is expected to pick up soon. Feed prices have not gone up, which should be a factor for celebrations.

Maize prices in major production centres were down, Andhra Pradesh down by 3.29% to Rs.12669/MT; Karnataka down by 0.53% to Rs.11097/Mt, Madhya Pradesh down by 1.02% to Rs.12076/MT; Rajasthan down by  4.33% to Rs.12924/MT. Prices were reported up in Gujarat by 2.12% to Rs.13662/MR. Delivered price in Gujarat was Rs.14200/MT.  On the exchange (NCDEX), expect for Jan 2015 contact which was up by 0.25% to Rs.12550/Mt due to clearance, all other contracts were down, due to better Rabi performance. Expect a good crop in Bihar, overall land under corn remains same in Bihar, despite lower Khariff prices. Feb down 1.07% to Rs.12060/MT; Mar down 1.99% to Rs.12330/MT; April down 3.63% to Rs.11690/MT and May down 1.07% to Rs.12000/MT. On the spot market, prices in Nizamabad were indicated at Rs.12325/MT, up 0.76%; Davangere Rs.11425/MT up 0.66%; Karimnagar up 3.07% to Rs.12600/MT. Prices were down in Sangli by 0.78% to Rs. 12650/MT and also in Gulabbagh by 0.32% to Rs.13397/MT.

In the US the prices on exchange did not change much against last week, though at one point information that there is enough corn in the world market and that weather is improving in South America brought the price at $150/Mt and later improved to $152.20/MR on higher exports sales information. Overall Mar contract was down by 0.10%. May and July contract though were up slightly and closed at $155.58/MT and $158.49/MT up by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. With the basis on Mar up, the FOB prices (US Gulf) for Jan-Feb were up and indicated at $185/MT, while the Mar-Apr prices were down at $181/MT. FOB (PNW) prices were indicated at $196 for Mar delivery and $197/MT for later months.

DDGS prices this week were lower and attractive against last week and FOB (US gulf) indicated at $270-267/MT, FOB (PNW) indicated at $272/MT. CNF prices to Vietnam were indicated at $334/MT this week, against $340/MT last week. CNF prices to China too were down by $5/MT at $315/MT

Freight rates continue to decline  and the benchmark US Gulf-japan freight was indicated at $34/MT, down $5/MT from the start of the year. Similarly PNW-Japan freight indicate at $18.5/MT. US Gulf-China at $33/MT; PNW-China at $17/5/MT and Argentine-Brazil to China was indicated at $23.5/MT (Minimum) to a high of $30/MT.