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24 April 2014

El Nino possibility: Experts say no pressing panic button yet

New Delhi, Apr 24. With IMD forecasting below normal monsoon this year because of a possible El Nino factor, agriculture experts today advised the government not to press the panic button yet. "The monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 95 per cent of the Long Period average with an error of plus or minus 5 percent," Indian Meteorological Department said in a statement. Officials in the weather department said the monsoon is expected to be below normal because of the El-Nino effect. Gulati, who is now chair-professor at think-tank ICRIER, said below normal rain does not mean there will be drought. "We have to see how would be the distribution of rain across the country." El Nino refers to the warmer-than-average sea surface temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This condition occurs every 4-12 years and had last impacted India's monsoon in 2009, leading to the worst drought in almost four decades. Crisil Chief Economist D K Joshi said: "No doubt, the IMD forecast is not encouraging, but I won't press the panic button now as there is higher probability of normal monsoon." "Below normal monsoon is not a drought year. What matter is how well rainfall is distributed across the country. We need to be concerned and be prepared so that we are not taken by surprise," he added. The four-month long long monsoon starting June is crucial for kharif crops such as rice, soyabean, cotton and maize because almost 60 per cent of the farm land in the country is rainfed. Gulati said as per the Skymet forecast, rainfall in the country's north west and western regions would be hit badly if El Nino occurs. "If it (El Nino) affects rain in the western region, oilseeds, cotton, pulses and onion crops would be affected. The north-west region may not face much problem as it is irrigated," he added. Harish Galipelli, Head of Commodities and Currencies with JRG Wealth Management said if the rainfall spread is scattered then it will have impact on agriculture yields and production, thereby prices. Australian Bureau of Meteorology and private forecaster Skymet have also predicted a likelihood of El Nino factor hitting monsoon in India.

Stocks continue to outshine gold, silver

New Delhi, Apr 24. Stocks continue to outshine gold and silver when it comes to adding to investors' wealth by giving 8 per cent return so far this year. The BSE 30-stock benchmark index, Sensex, has generated a positive return of 8 per cent for investors so far this year, while gold prices rose by 2.14 per cent. Silver fell however by 1 per cent. Gold was at Rs 29,800 per 10 grams on December 31, 2013 and silver was at Rs 43,755 per kg. While, gold closed at Rs 30,440 per 10 grams yesterday, silver was at Rs 43,300 per kg. On the other hand, Sensex, which was at 21,170.68 points on December 31, closed at all-time high of 22,876.54 on Wednesday. After outperforming stock market for more than a decade, gold has been on a back foot for more than two consecutive years now vis-a-vis equities. Market experts said gold's under-performance compared to stocks this year was mainly due to robust foreign funds' investment in Indian equities. They said stock market sentiment has improved on the hopes that a strong, pro-reforms government will come to power after the ongoing general elections are over in mid-May. Investors expect the Indian economy to improve and the inflation to ease, they said. "Emerging markets globally have done well this year. Besides, investors back home are counting on the elections' outcome. Also FIIs, a major driver of the Indian stocks have been putting lot of money in the equities. All this has supported the markets," Augment Financial Services' Founder and CEO Gajendra Nagpal said. Improvement in the world economy has brought the risk appetite back amongst retail investors and this has drenched the liquidity from safe havens such as gold leading to its under-performance, an expert said. Last year, the Sensex gave a positive return of about 9 per cent to investors, while gold prices fell by about 3 per cent and silver plummeted close to 24 per cent. In 2012, the Sensex rose by over 25 per cent, which was nearly double the gain of about 12.95 per cent in gold prices. The appreciation in silver was at about 12.84 per in 2012. Gold is normally preferred as a hedge against inflation, and investors tend to park their money in bullion considering it a safer bet in times of market uncertainties.

Gold gains for third-day on sustained buying, global cues

New Delhi, Apr 24. Continuing its rising streak for the third day, gold gained Rs 150 to Rs 30,590 per ten grams in the national capital today on sustained buying by stockists and jewellery fabricators amid a firming global trend. However, silver fell by Rs 120 to Rs 43,180 per kg on reduced offtake by industrial units. Traders said sustained buying by stockists and jewellery fabricators for the ongoing marriage season mainly led to an upward trend in gold prices. They said firming global trend as escalating tension in Ukraine and US economic data missing estimates spurred demand also boosting the sentiment. Gold in Singapore, which normally sets price trend on the domestic front, rose by 0.3 per cent to USD 1,287.25 an ounce. On the domestic front, gold of 99.9 and 99.5 per cent purity added Rs 150 each to Rs 30,590 and Rs 30,390 per ten grams, respectively. It had gained Rs 400 in last two trades. Sovereign followed suit and rose by Rs 100 to Rs 25,000 per piece of eight grams. On the other hand, silver ready declined by Rs 120 to Rs 43,180 per kg while weekly-based delivery traded marginally up by Rs 5 to Rs 43,480 per kg. Silver coins spurted by Rs 2,000 to Rs 82,000 for buying and Rs 83,000 for selling of 100 pieces.

Agri Min proposes Rs 50/qtl MSP hike in paddy, cotton & tur

New Delhi, Apr 24. The Agriculture Ministry has proposed a moderate hike in the minimum support price (MSP) of paddy by Rs 50 to Rs 1360/quintal for the 2014-15 crop year (July- June) and upto Rs 100/quintal raise in pulses MSP. The ministry has also proposed a Rs 50 per quintal increase in cotton MSP at Rs 3750 for medium staple and Rs 4050 for long staple for 2014-15 crop year, sources said. The Agriculture Ministry's recommendations on MSP of paddy, cotton and other 12 kharif crops are in line with the suggestions made by the government's statutory body Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), sources said. A Cabinet note has been moved for inter-ministerial comments. A final call on the MSP proposal would be taken post elections by the new government. According to sources, the Agriculture Ministry has proposed increase in the paddy MSP by Rs 50 to Rs 1360/quintal for common variety and a raise of Rs 55 raise to Rs 1400/quintal for 'grade A' variety of paddy for the 2014-15 crop year. A moderate increase in paddy MSP has been recommended keeping in view the excessive stock of rice in the government godowns, sources said. With regard to other cereals, the ministry has suggested a marginal hike in maize MSP by Rs 30 at Rs 1530/quintal for hybrid variety and Rs 1550/quintal for maldandi variety for this year as its MSP was raised sharply two years back. Similarly, it has suggested a Rs 50 raise in ragi MSP at Rs 1550/quintal for 2014-15 from over last year. However, the ministry has recommended retaining the existing MSP of bajra and maize at Rs 1250/quintal and Rs 1310/quintal, respectively, for 2014-15 crop year. It has also proposed keeping the MSP of groundnut and soyabean unchanged for this year at Rs 4000/quintal and Rs 2500-2560/quintal, respectively. As far as pulses are concerned, the Agriculture Ministry has recommended a Rs 50 hike in the support price of 'Tur' and 'Urad' at Rs 4350/quintal each for 2014-15. The ministry has recommended a Rs 100 increase in MSP of 'Moong' at Rs 4600 per quintal for this year to keep inter-crop parity within kharif (summer) pulses. With regard to oilseeds, the ministry has proposed to keep groundnut and soyabean MSP unchanged for 2014-15. However, it has suggested an increase of Rs 50 in the support price of sunflower seed at Rs 3750/quintal from over last year, besides Rs 100 hike each in MSP of sesamum and nigerseed at Rs 4600 and Rs 3600/quintal, respectively, for this year. Sowing in the kharif (summer) season begins with the start of the south west monsoon from June and harvesting will commence from October.

23 April 2014

Coriander MP Mandi Closed Due to Election

Coriander Neemuch mandi reported closed (23rd and 24th April) due to LS election and in Baran mandi coriander trading run in alternate days.

Future Markets Will Remain closed due to Lok sabha Election in Maharastra on 24 April-201

As per NCDEX circular, there will be no technical report on 24 April-2014 as Future markets will remain close due to ongoing Lok sabha Election in Maharashtra. For more detail plese visit link below:- http://www.ncdex.com/Circulars/CircularHome.aspx

Canadian Pulses Output 2014-15 Fell 9.5%; Chana Down 29%; Lentil Down 8%; Dry Pea 12%

Canadian pulses production is likely to fall by 9.5% to 5.9MMT in 2014-15 from previous crop year, on lower yields which offset the anticipated increase in area seeded. Canadian chana production also down by 29% to 130000 tonne in 2014-15 from 182000 tonne in previous year. Lower area seeded under crop with lower expected yields leads to this major downfall. According to the USDA, chana production in USA is slightly up to 157000 tonne in 2013-14. The prospective planting area of USA chana for 2014-15 is forecasted at 0.2 million acres, up 1% from 2013-14 on higher area seeded is expected in Idaho. Canadian dry pea production also down by 12% to 3,450,000 tonne in 2014-15 from 3,849,000 tonne in previous year due to lower yields which offset the anticipated increase in area seeded. According to the USDA, dry pea production in USA is up by 28% to 0.7MT in 2013-14. The prospective planting area of USA dry pea for 2014-15 is forecasted at 0.95 million acres, up 8% from 2013-14 on higher area seeded is expected in Montana. Canadian lentil production also down by 8% to 1,735,000 tonne in 2014-15 from 1,881,000 tonne in previous year on lower yields, which offset the anticipated increase in area seeded. For 2013-14, USA lentil production is estimated at 228,000 tonne, down from 5% from 2012-13.The prospectie planting area of USA lentil for 2014-15 is forecasted at 0.3 million acres, down 12% from 2013-14 on lower area seeded is expected in Montana.(Source-AAFC)